Colorado Buffaloes at UCLA Bruins: 11/2/2019 Betting Pick

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The Colorado Buffaloes (+6) are making a trip west to face their in-conference counterpart UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. Pac-12 Networks owns the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Colorado Buffaloes vs. UCLA Bruins

In this Saturday Pac-12 game, UCLA is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 6 points. The Buffaloes are also receiving +185 moneyline odds while the Bruins are -230. This Pac-12 matchup should provide several decent in-game betting opportunities, and Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 65 points.

The Buffaloes have gained 0.2 units so far in 2019 and are 4-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-3-1.

The Bruins have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 4.2 units. The team is 4-4 ATS and has an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Buffaloes are 3-5 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against conference opponents. The Bruins are 3-5 SU overall and are also 3-2 SU in conference play.

UCLA enters this matchup on a four-game losing streak while Colorado has won its last two in a row. The Buffaloes came up short to USC 35-31 in a game where the defense allowed the Trojans to pass for 406 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 112 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. was unstoppable for the Trojans in that one with 156 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. Offensively, Steven Montez completed 27-of-43 passes for 324 yards and three touchdowns. Alex Fontenot (57 yards on 16 rush attempts) led the running attack in the loss. Laviska Shenault Jr. (nine receptions, 172 yards, one TD) and Tony Brown (five catches, 67 yards) handled the receiving duties.

UCLA is coming off of a 42-32 win over Arizona State. The Bruins defense allowed the Sun Devils to rush for 116 yards on 28 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Frank Darby was a bright spot in the defeat for Arizona State, recording 110 yards and two touchdowns on six catches. For UCLA, Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 16-of-23 passes for 176 yards and two touchdowns. Joshua Kelley (164 yards on 34 rush attempts, four TDs) mounted the ground attack in the win as Kyle Philips (three receptions, 39 yards, one TD) and Ethan Fernea (three catches, 45 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Colorado’s run the ball on 50.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UCLA has an overall rush percentage of 55.7 percent. The Buffaloes have rushed for 159.6 yards per game (including 168 per game versus Pac-12 opponents) and have 11 scores via handoffs this year. The Bruins are averaging 167.1 rush yards per game (220.6 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.

If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then it appears the Buffaloes could have the advantage when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has allowed only 34 sacks while the D-line registered 29 sacks. The Bruins, on the other hand, have given up 32 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 15 times.

The Buffaloes offense has logged 262.1 yards per game through the air overall (254 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Bruins have recorded 236.9 pass yards per outing (268 in the Pac-12) and have 16 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Colorado has allowed 159.6 rush yards and 327.3 pass yards per game. The UCLA defense has allowed 306.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 143.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Buffaloes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.40 to opponents, while the Bruins have given up an ugly 9.35 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Montez has amassed 1,918 yards this year, and has completed 65 percent of his 253 attempts with 13 scores through the air and six interceptions. He has a 7.12 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 5.26 over the last two outings.

On the other sideline, Dorian Thompson-Robinson has managed to complete 105-of-181 passes for 1,419 yards, 13 TDs and six INTs. Thompson-Robinson’s ANY/A sits at 6.57 for the season and 5.60 over his past two outings.

When these two schools met a year ago, Colorado knocked off UCLA easily 38-16.

Colorado Buffaloes at UCLA Bruins Free Pick

SU Winner: Colorado, ATS Winner: Colorado, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Buffaloes offense has registered five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bruins have accounted for three such plays.
  • Both teams have allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Colorado defense has given up 17 pass plays of 30+ yards while UCLA has permitted 18 such plays.
  • The Colorado offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UCLA has created 10 such runs.
  • Both defenses have allowed nine rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Buffaloes have given up 29 running plays of 10+ yards while the Bruins have given up 37 such plays.
  • The UCLA D has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this season. Colorado has produced 13 sacks.
  • As a team, Colorado has produced 4.9 yards per carry over its past three contests and 5.4 over its last two.
  • UCLA has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.8 over its last two.
  • Over its last three games, UCLA is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Colorado’s last game was 64.5. The over cashed in the team’s 35-31 defeat to USC.
  • In its last three contests, Colorado is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for UCLA’s last matchup was set at 56.5. The over cashed in the 42-32 triumph over Arizona State.
  • Colorado has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a three-point win over Arizona State on September 21st representing the only victory over that stretch.