In a battle of two schools that like to mix in a lot of running plays, No. 24 Mustangs of SMU (-13) are set to welcome the Tulsa Golden Hurricane to Gerald J. Ford Stadium. ESPNU has the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. These teams met a year ago with the final result being a 27-24 win for Tulsa.
Betting Preview: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at SMU Mustangs
In this Saturday American Athletic Conference game, SMU is getting picked as the big favorite and is currently giving up 13 points. The Golden Hurricane are also receiving +375 moneyline odds while the Mustangs are -550. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 62 points. If SMU gives up points early, it will likely create a solid betting opportunity in-game.
The Golden Hurricane are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.0 unit so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 0-4.
The surprising Mustangs have gained 6.5 units this season. The team is 5-0 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-0.
The perfect Golden Hurricane have gone 2-2 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any AAC competition yet. The Mustangs are 5-0 SU overall and are also 1-0 SU in conference play.
The Golden Hurricane are coming off a 24-21 victory over Wyoming on September 21 where Zach Smith completed only 25 passes on 50 attempts for 354 yards and two touchdowns. Shamari Brooks (67 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and Corey Taylor II (58 yards on 14 carries) led the ground attack while Keenen Johnson (seven receptions, 95 yards) and Sam Crawford Jr. (five catches, 88 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.
SMU just picked up a 48-21 win over South Florida. The defensive secondary allowed the Bulls to air it out for 288 yards and three touchdowns. Mitchell Wilcox was a bright spot in the defeat for South Florida, accounting for 77 yards on four catches. For SMU, Shane Buechele completed 21-of-25 passes for 226 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Xavier Jones (155 rushing yards on 15 attempts, two TDs) mounted the running game while James Proche (seven receptions, 96 yards, two TDs) and Reggie Roberson Jr. (five catches, 46 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Tulsa has run the ball on 55.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while SMU has an overall rush percentage of 59.3 percent. The Golden Hurricane have produced 106 rush yards per game and have six touchdowns on the ground this year. The Mustangs are putting up 222.4 rushing yards per game and have 19 total rush TDs.
If 2019 results are any indication, then it’s looking like the Mustangs could own the advantage when it comes to efficiency in the ground game. Their running backs has produced 4.7 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.6 to opponents. The Golden Hurricane have tallied 2.4 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.7 to opponents.
The Golden Hurricane offensive scheme has averaged 257 yards through the air overall and has five passing TDs so far. The Mustangs have put up 288.2 pass yards per outing and have 10 total pass scores.
Defensively, Tulsa appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents run for an average of 175.8 yards and throw for 202.8 yards per game. The SMU D has given up 242 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mustangs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.8 to opponents, while the Golden Hurricane have allowed a 6.25 ANY/A.
Buechele likely has the edge over Smith in this matchup. The Mustangs man under center has an adjusted net yards per pass attempt 8.41 for the season and 8.58 over his last two games while Smith’s ANY/A is 6.24 (and 6.32 over the last two games).
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. SMU Mustangs Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: SMU, ATS Winner: SMU, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for Tulsa’s last game going into it was 45.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-21 win over Wyoming.
- Tulsa, as a team, has averaged 3.3 yards per rush attempt over its past three outings and 2.5 over its last two.
- SMU has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.8 over its last two.
- SMU has lost two fumbles this season while Tulsa has lost three.
- In its last three matches, Tulsa is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for SMU’s last match was set at 61. The over cashed in the 48-21 victory over South Florida.
- Over its last three games, SMU is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Golden Hurricane offense has created two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Mustangs have put up seven such plays.
- The Tulsa defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while SMU has given up one such play.
- The Tulsa offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while SMU has created 12 such runs.
- Both teams have allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Golden Hurricane have given up 16 running plays of 10+ yards while the Mustangs have given up 21 such plays.
- The SMU defensive unit has produced 25 sacks on the year while Tulsa has just three.
