The No. 12 Nittany Lions of Penn State (-28) are gearing up to welcome their conference nemesis Purdue Boilermakers to Beaver Stadium. Kickoff for this showdown is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can witness the action live on ESPN.
Betting Preview: Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State has been tabbed as heavily favored in this one and is currently giving up 28 points to Purdue. If the Boilermakers get out in front early it’ll produce a reasonable betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points.
The game’s over/under was placed initially at 54.5, but the early action has leaned to the over.
The hapless Boilermakers are down 5.7 units so far and 1-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 3-1.
The Nittany Lions are up 2.0 units this season. The team is 3-1 ATS and owns an even O/U record of 2-2.
The Boilermakers are only 1-3 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.
The Boilermakers are most-recently on the rebound after a 38-31 defeat to Minnesota last week. The passing game left much to be desired as the Boilermakers completed 27-of-49 passes for 291 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Jack Plummer went 23-for-41 for 245 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while Elijah Sindelar completed four-of-eight for 46 yards. King Doerue (94 rushing yards on 20 attempts, two TDs) led the running attack in the loss. David Bell (eight receptions, 114 yards) and Jackson Anthrop (seven catches, 66 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Penn State enters this one having just earned a 59-0 win over Maryland. The defense held its ground in the victory, holding the Terrapins to only 68 passing yards and 60 yards on the ground. Anthony McFarland Jr. was a bright spot in the defeat, recording seven yards on three catches for Maryland. As a group, the Nittany Lions collectively completed 29-of-40 passes for 421 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Sean Clifford went 26-for-31 for 398 yards, three touchdowns and one interception while Will Levis was three-of-eight for 23 yards. Ricky Slade (28 rushing yards on eight attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Clifford (54 yards on seven carries, one TD) led the ground game in the win as KJ Hamler (six receptions, 108 yards, one TD) and Cam Sullivan-Brown (five catches, 35 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Purdue has run the ball on 36.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Penn State has a rush percentage of 52.4 percent. The Boilermakers have run for 68.3 yards per game and have three touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Nittany Lions are totaling 193.5 rush yards per game and have 15 total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then the Nittany Lions might have the edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has generated 5.5 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 1.9 to opponents. The Boilermakers have tallied 2.6 yards per carry while allowing 4.3 YPC to opponents.
The Boilermakers offensive scheme has logged a superb 351 yards per contest through the air overall and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Nittany Lions have put up 316 pass yards per outing and have 10 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Purdue has allowed 154.5 rush yards and 296.5 pass yards per game. The Penn State defense has allowed 206.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 68.0 yards per game on the ground. The Nittany Lions are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.95 to opponents, while the Boilermakers have given up a 7.85 ANY/A.
Clifford has been more efficient than Plummer of late. The Nittany Lions man under center has an adjusted net yards per pass attempt 13.68 for the year and 9.58 over his past two outings while Plummer’s ANY/A is 4.38 (and 3.74 over the last two outings).
These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other last year.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Penn State, ATS Winner: Purdue, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The O/U for Purdue’s previous game going into it was 56.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-31 loss to Minnesota.
- Purdue has averaged 2.3 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 2.5 over its last two.
- Penn State has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its last two.
- The Penn State offense has lost two fumbles this season while Purdue has lost three.
- In its last three matchups, Purdue is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Penn State’s last matchup was 61. The under cashed in that 59-0 victory over Maryland.
- Over its last three contests, Penn State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Boilermakers offense has registered four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Nittany Lions have accounted for seven such plays.
- The Purdue defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Penn State has given up three such plays.
- The Purdue offense has created zero rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Penn State has created seven such runs.
- The Boilermakers defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Nittany Lions have given up two such runs.
- The Penn State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times this year. Purdue has registered 11 sacks.
