College Football Free Pick: New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack

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The New Mexico Lobos and Nevada Wolf Pack are set to go at it on the turf at Clarence Mackay Stadium. ESPNU will televise the action and kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: New Mexico Lobos vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

In this Saturday Mountain West game, Nevada is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Lobos are also receiving +165 moneyline odds while the Wolf Pack are -185. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 59.5 points. There should be some good in-game betting scenarios in this matchup.

Sharp bettors are hammering the Lobos, as the line opened at -7. The game’s over/under has yet to move after being set initially at 59.5.

The Lobos have lost 3.0 units so far and are 3-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an Over-Under mark of 4-4.

The Wolf Pack have gained 4.0 units this season. The team is 2-5-1 ATS and also has an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Lobos are 2-6 straight up (SU), including 0-4 SU against MWC opponents. The Wolf Pack are 4-4 SU overall and 1-3 SU in conference play.

The Lobos are most-recently on the rebound after a 45-31 loss to Hawaii last week where Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti completed 23 passes for 293 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Ahmari Davis (200 yards on 16 rushes, two TDs) led the ground attack while Anselem Umeh (six receptions, 92 yards) and Emmanuel Logan-Greene (four catches, 34 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

A week ago, Wyoming took care of this Nevada team by a score of 31-3. As a group, the Wolf Pack collectively completed 27-of-45 passes for 254 yards and one interception. Carson Strong went 26-for-40 for 247 yards and one interception while Cristian Solano was one-of-five for seven yards. Toa Taua (21 rushing yards on 11 attempts) led the running game as Melquan Stovall (seven receptions, 57 yards) and Romeo Doubs (five catches, 98 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

New Mexico has run the ball on 58.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Nevada has an overall rush percentage of 49.7 percent. The Lobos have produced 211.6 rush yards per game (including 217.5 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 15 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wolf Pack are logging 127.4 rush yards per game (120.3 in conference) and have nine total rushing TDs.

If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Lobos ought to hold an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game. Their running backs has produced 5.1 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.3 to opponents. The Wolf Pack have ran for 3.5 yards per carry and given up 4.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Lobos offensive scheme has logged 216.4 yards/game in the air overall (186.5 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing TDs so far. The Wolf Pack have produced 229.8 pass yards per contest (231 against MWC foes) and have six total pass scores.

Defensively, New Mexico has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 160.4 yards and pass for 344.9 yards per game. The Nevada defense has allowed 272.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 151.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wolf Pack are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.03 to opponents, while the Lobos have given up an ugly 9.40 ANY/A.

Offensively, Salanoa-Tuioti has amassed 953 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 61-of-117 attempts with six passing scores and six interceptions. He has a 6.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.02 over the last two games.

Carson Strong has completed 106-of-174 passes for 976 yards, three TDs and six INTs for Nevada. His ANY/A stands at a very poor 3.79 for the year and 4.35 over his last two outings.

These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.

New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: New Mexico, ATS Winner: New Mexico, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • Nevada has lost seven fumbles this season while New Mexico has let six get away.
  • The New Mexico defense has 18 sacks on the year while Nevada has just 12.
  • New Mexico, as a team, has averaged 5.4 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
  • Nevada has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.1 over its past two.
  • New Mexico has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a three-point win over New Mexico State on September 21st accounting for the only victory over that stretch.
  • Nevada has lost four of its last five games SU, with a three-point victory over San Jose State on October 12th accounting for its lone win over that stretch.