College Football Free Pick – FIU Panthers vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

Posts AdminArticles, College Football, Football

In a battle of two teams that prefer to keep it on the ground, Owls of Florida Atlantic (-10) are set to welcome their in-conference counterpart Fiu Panthers to FAU Stadium. The matchup kicks off at 6:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can catch the action live on STAD.

Betting Preview: FIU Panthers at Florida Atlantic Owls

FIU is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 10 points in this CUSA game. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, gamblers would currently have to put up $400 in order to win $100 back on the Owls (-400). The Panthers are getting +300 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 61.5 points, and if one program gets out in front early, it’ll likely result in a reasonable in-game betting opportunity.

The underwhelming Panthers have lost 3.6 units so far and are 2-7 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-5.

The Owls have gained 2.1 units this season. The team is 6-3 ATS and owns an O/U record of 5-4.

The Panthers are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 3-3 SU against CUSA opponents. The Owls are 6-3 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.

The Panthers enter after a 24-17 victory over Old Dominion last week. James Morgan completed 20-of-33 passes for 252 yards. Napoleon Maxwell (83 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) and Anthony Jones (39 yards on 10 carries) led the running attack while Shemar Thornton (six receptions, 125 yards) and Maurice Alexander (four catches, 68 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Florida Atlantic just put together a 35-24 win over Western Kentucky. The defensive secondary let the Hilltoppers air it out for 380 yards and two touchdowns. Lucky Jackson was a force to be reckoned with, recording 194 yards and a score on nine catches for Western Kentucky. For Florida Atlantic, Chris Robison completed 18-of-29 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Chauncey Mason (60 rushing yards on 11 attempts) and James Charles (65 yards on 10 carries) handled the running game as Harrison Bryant (six receptions, 74 yards) and Deangelo Antoine (five catches, 28 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

FIU’s run the ball on 59.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Florida Atlantic has an overall rush percentage of 52.1 percent. The Panthers have run for 187.9 yards/game (including 174 per game against Conference USA opponents) and have 18 scores on the ground this year. The Owls are logging 139.4 rushing yards per game (168.8 in conference) and have 19 total rush TDs.

The Panthers offensive scheme has averaged 208.3 yards in the air overall (208.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 10 passing scores so far. The Owls have put up 279.3 pass yards per game (276 in the CUSA) and have 18 total pass TDs.

Defensively, FIU seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 199 yards and pass for 165 yards per game. The Florida Atlantic defense has given up 261.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 141.6 yards per game on the ground. The Panthers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.81 to opponents, while the Owls have allowed a 5.98 ANY/A.

Offensively, Morgan has put up 1,477 passing yards this season. He’s completed 112-of-183 attempts with eight passing scores and only two interceptions. He has a 7.69 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.09 over the last two games.

Shemar Thornton (388 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns on the year), Maurice Alexander (211 receiving yards) and Anthony Jones (551 rush yards, seven rush TDs, two TDs) have each played significant roles of late.

Chris Robison has managed to complete 173-of-276 passes for 2,131 yards, 15 TDs and three INTs for Florida Atlantic. His ANY/A stands at 7.17 for the year and 8.13 over his last two outings.

We also expect the Florida Atlantic offense to spread its attack this Saturday. Harrison Bryant, Deangelo Antoine and James Charles have combined for 421 total yards and two touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

These two teams met last year with the final outcome being a 49-14 victory for Florida Atlantic.

FIU Panthers at Florida Atlantic Owls NCAA Prediction

SU Winner: Florida Atlantic, ATS Winner: Florida Atlantic, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The O/U for FIU’s previous game was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 victory over Old Dominion.
  • FIU, as a team, has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its past three contests and 3.1 over its last two.
  • Florida Atlantic has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.1 over its last two.
  • The Florida Atlantic offense has lost two fumbles this season while FIU has lost seven.
  • In its last three matchups, FIU is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • FIU has won five of its last six games SU, with a 33-point defeat to Middle Tennessee on October 26th representing the only loss over that stretch.
  • The Over/Under for Florida Atlantic’s previous matchup was 51. The over cashed in that 35-24 win over Western Kentucky.
  • Over its last three matches, Florida Atlantic is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Florida Atlantic has won seven of its last eight games SU, with a -5-point defeat to Marshall on October 18th accounting for the only loss over that span.
  • The Panthers offense has registered six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Owls have put up nine such plays.
  • The FIU defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Florida Atlantic has given up nine such plays.
  • The FIU offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Florida Atlantic has created 18 such runs.
  • The Panthers defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Owls have given up 15 such runs.
  • The Florida Atlantic D has recorded more than twice as many sacks as FIU this season (25 to 12).