College Football Free Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

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The Warhawks (-1) are set to welcome the Arkansas State Red Wolves to Louisiana-monroe. This conference matchup is scheduled to get going at 3:30 p.m. ET and you can tune in to the action on ESPNU.

Betting Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Louisiana-Monroe is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 1 point in this Saturday SBC game. The Red Wolves are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the Warhawks are -105. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 67 points. If one side can catch a lucky break in the early stages, it would likely produce a reasonable live betting opportunity.

This game’s line opened at 0. The over/under has not changed after being set initially at 67.

The Red Wolves are 3-5 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.7 units so far. The team has recorded an O/U mark of 4-4.

The Warhawks are down 1.0 unit this season. The team is 2-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-4.

The Red Wolves are 4-4 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against conference opponents. The Warhawks are 3-4 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.

When these two teams faced one another a year ago, Arkansas State won by a pair of touchdowns 31-17.

The Red Wolves want to make it two in a row 38-14 victory over Texas State last week. Layne Hatcher completed 18 passes for just 158 yards and two touchdowns. Marcel Murray (114 rushing yards on 22 attempts, two TDs) and Jamal Jones (63 yards on 13 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Omar Bayless (seven receptions, 77 yards, two TDs) and Kirk Merritt (three catches, 40 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Louisiana-Monroe just fell 52-7 to Appalachian State two weeks ago. As a group, the team collectively completed 11-of-27 passes for 102 yards and two interceptions. Caleb Evans went nine-for-19 for 75 yards and one interception while Colby Suits was two-of-eight for 27 yards and one interception. Josh Johnson (77 yards on 13 rush attempts) handled the running attack while Markis McCray (two receptions, 29 yards) and Zach Jackson (two catches, 33 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Arkansas State has run the ball on 49 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisiana-Monroe has a rush percentage of 53.5 percent. The Red Wolves have run for 132.3 yards/game (including 148.5 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Warhawks are averaging 202.3 rush yards per game (152.3 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Warhawks ought to hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has yielded only nine sacks while the D-line has logged 11 sacks. The Red Wolves offensive line has given up 24 sacks and their defense has created only 15 sacks.

The Red Wolves offensive scheme has tallied 295.5 yards per contest in the air overall (305.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 22 passing scores so far. The Warhawks have recorded 224.9 pass yards per outing (204 against SBC competition) and have 10 total pass TDs.

Arkansas State has let opponents rush for an average of 211 yards and throw for 281.3 yards per game. The Louisiana-Monroe D has allowed 252.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 239.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Red Wolves have given up an ANY/A of 6.68 to opposing QBs, while the Warhawks are allowing an ANY/A of 7.09.

Offensively, Hatcher has amassed 950 passing yards this season. He’s completed 67 percent of his 100 attempts with 10 scores through the air and five interceptions. Hatcher’s got a 7.81 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.57 over the last two outings.

Caleb Evans has completed 110-of-181 passes for 1,247 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs for Louisiana-Monroe. His ANY/A stands at 6.35 for the season and 4.04 over his last two games.

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Louisiana-Monroe, ATS Winner: Louisiana-Monroe, O/U: Under

Betting Notes

  • Both teams have lost four fumbles this year.
  • The Arkansas State D has 15 sacks on the year while Louisiana-Monroe has 11.
  • Arkansas State, as a team, has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its past three contests and 3.7 over its last two.
  • Louisiana-Monroe has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.4 over its past two.
  • Over its last three matchups, Louisiana-Monroe is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Arkansas State’s previous game going into it was 61. The under cashed in the team’s 38-14 win over Texas State.
  • Over its last three games, Arkansas State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Louisiana-Monroe’s last match was set at 65.5. The under cashed in that 52-7 defeat to Appalachian State.