In a battle featuring two schools with significantly different run-pass ratios, the Air Force Falcons (-2.5) are set to meet their in-conference nemesis Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Hawaiian Airlines Field at Aloha Stadium. Kickoff is pretty late for those on the East Coast (11:00 p.m. ET) and CBS Sports Network has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Air Force Falcons
In this Saturday Mountain West matchup, Air Force is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Falcons are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Rainbow Warriors are +120. There will probably be some good live betting scenarios while this contest is underway, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 64.5 points.
The Falcons are 3-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.8 units so far in 2019. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 4-2.
The Rainbow Warriors have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 5.1 units. The team is 3-3 ATS and has an even O/U record of 3-3.
The Falcons have gone 4-2 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against MWC opponents. The Rainbow Warriors are 4-2 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.
The Falcons are coming off a resounding 43-24 victory over Fresno State last week. The defense did its part in the win, keeping the Bulldogs to just 209 passing yards and 59 yards on the ground. Emoryie Edwards had a productive day for the Bulldogs in that one with 73 yards and a score on four catches. On the offensive side, the Falcons completed 2-of-3 passes for 81 yards and one touchdown. Donald Hammond III went two-for-3 for 81 yards and one touchdown while Rhett Harms completed -of- for yards. Hammond III (37 rushing yards on 13 attempts, two TDs) also spearheaded the ground attack and was complemented by Kadin Remsberg (89 yards on 11 carries) in the win. Benjamin Waters (one receptions, 53 yards, one TD) and Geraud Sanders (one catch, 28 yards) shared the receiving duties.
Hawaii just lost an ugly 59-37 game to Boise State. The defensive unit allowed the Broncos to pass for 315 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 203 yards and three scores. John Hightower put up a solid outing in the win, recording 141 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches for Boise State. As a group, the Rainbow Warriors collectively completed 26-of-50 passes for 325 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Cole McDonald went 23-for-41 for 251 yards and three touchdowns while Chevan Cordeiro was three-of-nine for 74 yards, one touchdown and one interception. McDonald (54 yards on eight rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Melquise Stovall (eight receptions, 114 yards, two TDs) and Cedric Byrd II (six catches, 74 yards) led all Hawaii pass-catchers.
Air Force’s run the ball on 84.4 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 87.9 percent across possessions in conference play. Hawaii has an overall rush percentage of 37.5 percent, and has kept it on the ground 34.8 percent of the time when playing MWC opponents. The Falcons have rushed for 296.5 yards/game (including 321.3 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 21 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Rainbow Warriors are averaging 122 rushing yards per game (126 in conference) and have five total rush TDs.
If 2019 numbers are any indication, then it seems like the Falcons should own the advantage in terms of efficiency in the ground game. Their running backs has generated 5.1 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Rainbow Warriors have rushed for 4.6 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 5.3 to opponents.
The Falcons offense has tallied 127.8 yards/game through the air overall (108.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has five passing TDs so far. The Rainbow Warriors have produced an astonishing 351.5 pass yards per contest (349 against MWC foes) and have 23 total pass scores.
Air Force seems to hold an edge in both areas of the defense. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 107.7 yards and pass for 202.8 yards per game. The Hawaii defense has given up 233.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 179.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Rainbow Warriors are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.16 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have given up a 7.04 ANY/A.
Offensively, Hammond III is up to 450 passing yards this year, and has connected on 20-of-35 attempts with five scores through the air and two interceptions. Hammond III has a pristine 12.69 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.33 over the last two outings.
Cole McDonald has managed to complete 129-of-201 passes for 1,568 yards, 16 TDs and nine INTs for Hawaii. His ANY/A sits at 7.06 for the year and 9.67 over his past two games.
These two MWC foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.
Air Force Falcons at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Free Pick
SU Winner: Air Force, ATS Winner: Air Force, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- As a team, Air Force has produced 4.5 yards per carry across its last three contests and 3.9 over its last two.
- Hawaii has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its past two.
- The Hawaii offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Air Force has lost seven.
- The Falcons offense has recorded six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Rainbow Warriors have put up five such plays.
- The Air Force defense has allowed one pass play of 40 yards or more, while Hawaii has given up three such plays.
- The Air Force offense has created seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Hawaii has created four such runs.
- The Falcons defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Rainbow Warriors have given up 13 such runs.
- The Hawaii defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks nine times this year. Air Force has produced seven sacks.
