In the Cheez-It Bowl, the California Golden Bears are slight favorites as they prepare to take on the TCU Horned Frogs. This showdown will kick off fairly late for fans on the East Coast (9:00 p.m. ET) and ESPN has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: California Golden Bears at TCU Horned Frogs
TCU is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 1 point in this Wednesday matchup. The Golden Bears are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the Horned Frogs are -105. There might be multiple good live betting scenarios while this game is underway, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 40.5 points.
With the line opening at 0 and the total initially set at 41, betting odds have moved a little.
The Golden Bears are 6-5-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.9 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under mark of 2-9.
The Horned Frogs have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 8.3 units. They’re 3-8-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-6.
The Golden Bears are 7-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Horned Frogs are 6-6 SU.
The Golden Bears lost to Stanford 23-13 in a contest where the passing game left much to be desired as Chase Garbers completed just 22 passes on 39 attempts for 197 yards, one score and two interceptions. Patrick Laird (116 rushing yards on 19 attempts) and the signal-caller Garbers (44 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the running attack. Jordan Duncan (five receptions, 59 yards, one TD) and Moe Ways (five catches, 39 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
TCU is coming off of a 31-24 win over Oklahoma State. Grayson Muehlstein completed 16-of-25 passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns. Sewo Olonilua (70 yards on 14 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Muehlstein (47 yards on 13 carries) led the running game as Jalen Reagor (eight receptions, 91 yards, one TD) and Derius Davis (two catches, 45 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each squad sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. California’s run the ball on 54.0 percent of its offensive possessions while TCU has an overall rush percentage of 52.8. The Golden Bears have produced 162.1 rush yards per game and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Horned Frogs are totaling 147.8 rush yards per game and have 13 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then the Golden Bears could hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has produced 4.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Horned Frogs have rushed for 4.1 yards per carry and allowed 3.6 YPC to opponents.
The Golden Bears offensive scheme has averaged 188.1 yards in the air overall and has 16 passing scores so far. The Horned Frogs have produced 226.8 pass yards per game and have 18 total pass TDs.
California has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 132.3 yards and throw for 187.1 yards per game. The TCU defense has given up 202.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 141.8 yards per game on the ground. The Golden Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.94 to opposing QBs, while the Horned Frogs have given up a 5.65 ANY/A.
Muehlstein likely has the advantage over Garbers in this matchup. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.83 for the season and 8.69 across his last two games while Garbers’ ANY/A is 4.93 (and 3.66 over the last two outings).
California Golden Bears at TCU Horned Frogs Betting Pick
SU Winner: California, ATS Winner: California, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- As a team, California has rushed for 3.5 yards per attempt across its past three contests and 3.4 over its last two.
- TCU has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.6 over its past two.
- Both teams have lost 11 fumbles this year.
- The Golden Bears offense has produced four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Horned Frogs have accounted for 11 such plays.
- The California defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while TCU has given up eight such plays.
- The California offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while TCU has created seven such runs.
- The Golden Bears defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Horned Frogs have given up 11 such runs.
- The TCU defense has notched 30 sacks on the year while California has 29.
