In a battle of two schools that like to run the football, Coach Scott Satterfield and the No. 25 Appalachian State Mountaineers (-11) are set to welcome the Troy Trojans at Kidd Brewer Stadium. ESPN+ is scheduled to televise the action and this pivotal conference showdown starts at 2:30 p.m. ET. These two conference foes did not get a chance to face one another last year.
Betting Preview: Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Troy Trojans
Troy is a live dog and is currently getting 11 points in this Saturday SBC game. The Trojans are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Mountaineers are -450. If one program can find paydirt early it would create a reasonable betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 48.5 points.
The sharp action is siding with both the Mountaineers and the under. The line originally opened at -10 while the game’s total was set initially at 51.
The profitable Trojans are 7-3-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.9 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 7-4.
The Mountaineers are down 0.5 units this season. The team is 8-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-4.
The Trojans are 9-2 straight up (SU), including 7-0 SU against conference opponents. The Mountaineers are 8-2 SU overall and 6-1 SU in conference play.
The Trojans just got a 12-7 victory over Texas State last week. The passing game could’ve been sharper as Sawyer Smith completed only 13-of-27 passes for 79 yards. B.J. Smith (94 rushing yards on 24 attempts) led the ground attack. Sidney Davis (five receptions, 43 yards) and Deondre Douglas (three catches, 14 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Appalachian State just earned a 45-17 win over Georgia State. The team’s defense allowed the Panthers to run for 197 yards on 34 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Dan Ellington had a good showing in the loss, recording 113 rushing yards on 19 attempts for Georgia State. For Appalachian State, Zac Thomas completed 20-of-24 passes for 282 yards and three touchdowns. Darrynton Evans (127 rushing yards on 15 attempts, one TD) and Marcus Williams Jr. (58 yards on 13 carries) handled the running game while Corey Sutton (four receptions, 101 yards, one TD) and Thomas Hennigan (four catches, 60 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Troy has run the ball on 59.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Appalachian State has an overall rush percentage of 62.0 percent. The Trojans have run for 190.6 yards/game (including 200.7 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 19 scores on the ground this year. The Mountaineers are putting up 246.6 rush yards per game (248.0 in conference) and have 26 total rushing TDs.
The Trojans offense has averaged 209.9 yards in the air overall (228.4 per game versus conference opposition) and has 20 passing scores so far. The Mountaineers have produced 207.5 pass yards per contest (175 in the SBC) and also have 20 total pass TDs.
Troy has let opponents run for an average of 124.5 yards and pass for 223.9 yards per game. The Appalachian State D has given up 152.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 130.6 yards per game on the ground. The Mountaineers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.51 to opposing QBs, while the Trojans have allowed a 4.91 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Smith is up to 902 yards this season. He’s connected on 60 percent of his 124 attempts with eight scores through the air and four interceptions. He’s got a 6.37 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.75 over the last two games.
As a group, B.J. Smith, Sidney Davis and Luke Whittemore have combined for 422 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two outings.
In the other locker room, Zac Thomas has completed 101-of-157 passes for 1,427 yards, 14 TDs and four INTs. Thomas’ ANY/A sits at 8.89 for the year and 9.61 over his last two games.
We also expect the Appalachian State offense to spread its attack this Saturday. As a trio, Darrynton Evans, Corey Sutton and Zac Thomas have combined to account for 491 total yards and five touchdowns the last two games.
Troy Trojans vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers Free Pick
SU Winner: Appalachian State, ATS Winner: Appalachian State, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- Appalachian State has lost three fumbles this season while Troy has lost 10.
- The Troy defense has more than twice as many sacks as Appalachian State this year (35 to 17).
- Troy, as a team, has rushed for 3.0 yards per attempt across its past three contests and 3.2 over its last two.
- Appalachian State has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.2 over its last two.
- In its last three matchups, Appalachian State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Troy’s last game was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 12-7 victory over Texas State.
- Over its last three contests, Troy is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Appalachian State’s last matchup going into it was 55. The over cashed in the 45-17 win over Georgia State.
- Troy has won 10 of its last 11 games SU, with an October 13th defeat to Liberty representing the only loss over that stretch.
- Appalachian State has won nine of its last 10 games SU, with a -20-point loss to Georgia Southern on October 25th accounting for its only defeat over that span.
