The New Mexico State Aggies and Ole Miss Rebels are set to do battle on the grass at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field. SEC Network will televise the action and kickoff will take place at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Ole Miss Rebels vs. New Mexico State Aggies
Ole Miss has been tabbed as heavily favored in this one and is currently giving up 29 points to New Mexico State. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 60 points, and there might be some solid live betting possibilities in this matchup.
The Aggies are 3-5 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 5.0 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-5.
The Rebels are down 3.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-5.
The Aggies are 0-8 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Rebels are 3-6 SU.
The Aggies are most-recently on the rebound after a 41-7 defeat to Georgia Southern on October 26. The passing attack could’ve been sharper as Josh Adkins completed only 13-of-23 passes for 59 yards and two interceptions. Jason Huntley (133 yards on 24 rushes, one TD) and Christian Gibson (98 yards on 23 carries) led the ground attack in the loss while Huntley (four receptions, 11 yards) and Gibson (two catches, eight yards) handled the receiving duties.
On November 2, Auburn got the win against this Ole Miss crew by a score of 20-14. The Rebels defense let the Tigers pass for 340 yards while rushing for 167 yards and two scores. D.J. Williams put up a solid showing in the win for Auburn, recording 93 rushing yards and a score on 24 attempts. As a group, the Rebels collectively completed 14-of-27 passes for 99 yards and one interception. John Rhys Plumlee went 11-for-21 for 86 yards and one interception while Matt Corral was three-of-six for 13 yards. Plumlee (92 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one TD) and Jerrion Ealy (44 yards on 14 carries) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Ealy (four receptions, 16 yards) and Elijah Moore (three catches, 14 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
New Mexico State has run the ball on 45.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Ole Miss has an overall rush percentage of 61 percent. The Aggies have produced 118.4 rush yards/game and have nine scores via handoffs this year. The Rebels are totaling 225.2 rush yards per game and have 18 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then the Rebels should hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has produced 5.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.7 to opponents. The Aggies have ran for 3.7 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 6.2 to opponents.
The Aggies offense has tallied 226.6 yards per game in the air overall and has nine passing TDs so far. The Rebels have recorded 190.2 pass yards per outing and also have nine total pass scores.
New Mexico State should possess an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 263.5 yards and pass for 215 yards per game. The Ole Miss defense has given up 290.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 129.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Rebels are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.63 to opposing QBs, while the Aggies have given up an 8.31 ANY/A.
Offensively, Adkins is up to 1,534 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 162-of-259 attempts with six scores through the air and 13 interceptions. He has a 3.32 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 3.21 over the last two outings.
The Aggies have tried to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. The duo of Jason Huntley (508 rush yards, four rush TDs, 131 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Christian Gibson (218 rush yards) have delivered in the offensive gameplans for New Mexico State.
On the other sideline, Matt Corral has managed to complete 81-of-136 passes for 990 yards, four TDs and one INT. Corral’s ANY/A stands at 6.64 for the season and 2.96 over his past two games.
The Rebels will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. Along with John Rhys Plumlee (zero receiving yards), Jerrion Ealy (348 rush yards, three rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Snoop Conner (275 rush yards, two rush TDs, 38 receiving yards) have seen quite a few action lately.
New Mexico State Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels Betting Prediction
SU Winner: Ole Miss, ATS Winner: New Mexico State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Ole Miss defensive unit has recorded 23 sacks on the year while New Mexico State has just six.
- The Ole Miss offense has lost six fumbles in 2019 while New Mexico State has lost eight.
- The Aggies offense has registered five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Rebels have accounted for three such plays.
- The New Mexico State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Ole Miss has given up 11 such plays.
- The New Mexico State offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Ole Miss has created 25 such runs.
- The Aggies defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Rebels have given up five such runs.
- Ole Miss has dropped six of its last seven games SU, with a 25-point win over Vanderbilt on October 5th accounting for the lone victory over that stretch.
- As a team, New Mexico State has rushed for 4.0 yards per attempt across its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.
- Ole Miss has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its past two.
