College Football Free Betting Pick – TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

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In a battle featuring two schools that prefer to focus on their running games, Cowboys of Oklahoma State (-4) are set to welcome their Big 12 rival No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs to Boone Pickens Stadium. This vital afternoon matchup will start at 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPN will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys

TCU is the road underdog in this Big 12 game and is currently getting 4 points. The Horned Frogs are also receiving +155 moneyline odds while the Cowboys are -175. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 65 points. It appears that there will likely be some solid live betting possibilities during the showdown.

The line opened at -4. The game’s total hasn’t moved since it opened at 65.

The Horned Frogs have lost 3.3 units so far and are 3-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-3.

The Cowboys have lost 0.8 units this season. The team is 5-2-1 ATS and has an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Horned Frogs are 4-3 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Cowboys are 5-3 SU overall and are also 2-3 SU in conference play.

The Horned Frogs enter after a 37-27 win over Texas last week. Max Duggan completed 19-of-27 passes for 273 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Sewo Olonilua (48 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Duggan (72 yards on 13 carries, one TD) mounted the ground attack in the win. Taye Barber (five receptions, 94 yards) and John Stephens Jr. (three catches, 32 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Oklahoma State is coming off of a 34-27 win over Iowa State. The Cowboys defensive secondary allowed the Cyclones to air it out for 382 yards. Breece Hall was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 76 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 18 attempts, along with 42 yards and a score on six catches for Iowa State. For Oklahoma State, Spencer Sanders completed 16-of-24 passes for 249 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Chuba Hubbard (116 yards on 22 rush attempts, one TD) handled the ground attack in the win as Tylan Wallace (eight receptions, 131 yards, one TD) and Braydon Johnson (three catches, 66 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

TCU’s run the ball on 58.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Oklahoma State has a rush percentage of 61.9 percent. The Horned Frogs have run for 228.4 yards/game (including 204.3 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 16 scores via handoffs this year. The Cowboys are totaling 263.5 rush yards per game (250.4 in conference) and have 21 total rushing TDs.

The Horned Frogs offensive scheme has averaged 212.1 yards through the air overall (234.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 11 passing TDs so far. The Cowboys have produced 241.6 pass yards per game (230 in the Big 12) and have 15 total pass scores.

Defensively, TCU seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 103.7 yards and throw for 201 yards per game. The Oklahoma State defense has allowed 274.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 162.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Horned Frogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.00 to opposing QBs, while the Cowboys have given up a 7.23 ANY/A.

Offensively, Duggan has put up 1,015 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 83-of-140 attempts with 11 scores through the air and only one interception. He’s got a 7.59 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.35 over the last two games.

On the other sideline, Spencer Sanders has connected on 116-of-182 passes for 1,582 yards, 12 TDs and nine INTs. Sanders’ ANY/A stands at 6.90 for the season and 6.26 over his past two outings.

When these two teams faced each other a year ago, TCU knocked Oklahoma State off by a touchdown 31-24.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Pick

SU Winner: TCU, ATS Winner: TCU, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Horned Frogs offense has created five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Cowboys have put up nine such plays.
  • The TCU defense has allowed five pass plays of 40+ yards, while Oklahoma State has given up nine such plays.
  • The TCU offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Oklahoma State has created 26 such runs.
  • The Horned Frogs defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Cowboys have given up nine such runs.
  • The Oklahoma State D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 14 times this season. TCU has registered 12 sacks.
  • TCU has averaged 4.4 yards per carry across its past three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
  • Oklahoma State has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.4 over its last two.
  • Over its last three games, Oklahoma State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for TCU’s previous game was 57. The over cashed in the team’s 37-27 victory over Texas.
  • In its last three matchups, TCU is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Oklahoma State’s last outing was set at 65. The under cashed in the 34-27 victory over Iowa State.