College Football Free Betting Pick – North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

Posts AdminArticles, College Football, Football

The North Carolina Tar Heels (+5) are heading north to face their conference counterpart Pittsburgh Panthers at Heinz Field. The game is scheduled to get underway at 8:00 p.m. ET and ESPN will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers

North Carolina is the road underdog in this ACC matchup and is currently getting 5 points. The Tar Heels are also receiving +180 moneyline odds while the Panthers are -220. There should be some good live betting scenarios while this matchup is underway, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 49 points.

The line opened at -5 while the total hasn’t moved since it opened at 49.

Each of these teams has been profitable this season as the Tar Heels have gained 1.6 units while the Panthers are up 3.5 units.

The Tar Heels are 4-5 straight up (SU), including 3-4 SU against ACC opponents. The Panthers are 6-3 SU overall and 3-2 SU in conference play.

The Tar Heels fell to Virginia 38-31 in a matchup where the passing attack could’ve been sharper as Sam Howell completed just 15-of-29 passes for 353 yards and four touchdowns. Javonte Williams (98 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Michael Carter (87 yards on 14 carries) led the running attack in the loss while Dyami Brown (six receptions, 202 yards, three TDs) and Dazz Newsome (four catches, 65 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Pittsburgh just picked up a 20-10 win over Georgia Tech. The defensive unit did its job in the victory, holding the Yellow Jackets to only 108 passing yards and 86 rushing yards. Ahmarean Brown was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 61 yards on four catches for Georgia Tech. For Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett completed 25-of-34 passes for 204 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. A.J. Davis (75 yards on 16 rush attempts) led the ground game in the win as Maurice Ffrench (11 receptions, 71 yards) and Taysir Mack (five catches, 47 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

North Carolina has run the ball on 55 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Pittsburgh has a rush percentage of 47.1 percent. The Tar Heels have produced 168.4 rush yards/game (including 161.7 per game versus Atlantic Coast opponents) and have four scores via handoffs this year. The Panthers are averaging 130.9 rushing yards per game (125.2 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.

If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it appears the Panthers should hold an advantage in the trenches, as their offensive line has yielded just 20 sacks while their D-line has registered 40 sacks. The Tar Heels offensive line has given up 29 sacks and their defense has forced only 24 sacks.

The Heels offensive scheme has averaged 277.4 yards in the air overall (275.6 per game against conference opposition) and has 26 passing scores so far. The Panthers have recorded 249.1 pass yards per outing (207 against ACC foes) and have 13 total pass TDs.

North Carolina has let opponents run for an average of 161.4 yards and pass for 234.9 yards per game. The Pittsburgh defense has given up 194.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 85.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Panthers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.03 to opponents, while the Tar Heels have given up a 6.16 ANY/A.

Howell probably has the edge over Pickett in this one, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 8.14for the year (and 9.81 over the past two games). Pickett’s ANY/A is 5.27 for the year and 2.25 over his last two outings.

These two teams met last year with the final result being a 38-35 win for North Carolina.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers Free Pick

SU Winner: North Carolina, ATS Winner: North Carolina, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The O/U for North Carolina’s previous game was set at 48. The over cashed in the team’s 38-31 defeat to Virginia.
  • As a team, North Carolina has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.7 over its last two.
  • Pittsburgh has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.3 over its last two.
  • The Pittsburgh offense has lost seven fumbles this season while North Carolina has lost four.
  • In its last three matchups, North Carolina is 0-2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Pittsburgh’s last match was set at 44. The under cashed in the team’s 20-10 victory over Georgia Tech.
  • In its last three matches, Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • Pittsburgh has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -4-point defeat to Miami (FL) on October 26th accounting for the lone loss over that stretch.
  • The Tar Heels offense has created 13 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Panthers have accounted for six such plays.
  • The North Carolina defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Pittsburgh has given up 10 such plays.
  • The North Carolina offense has created 18 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Pittsburgh has created seven such runs.
  • The Tar Heels defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Panthers have given up four such runs.
  • The Pittsburgh defense has sacked opposing QBs 40 times this year. North Carolina has produced just 24 sacks.