College Football Free Betting Pick: Navy Midshipmen vs. Kansas State Wildcats

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The No. 21 Navy Midshipmen (-3) are coming into the AutoZone Liberty Bowl as favorites as they prepare to take on the Kansas State Wildcats. ESPN owns the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Navy Midshipmen

In this Tuesday game, Navy is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Midshipmen are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are +120. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 52 points. If the favorites start trailing in the early stages, it will probably generate a worthy betting opportunity in-game.

After the game’s over/under was originally placed at 51, the the early action has apparently moved toward the over.

The surprising Midshipmen are 9-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 6.3 units so far in 2019. The team’s posted an O/U record of 7-5.

The Wildcats are down 2.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 9-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-8.

The Midshipmen are 10-2 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Wildcats are 8-4 SU.

The Midshipmen are coming off a resounding 31-7 win over Army West Point on December 14. The passing attack was sharp as the Midshipmen completed 1-of-1 passes for one yards and one touchdown. Chance Warren went one-for-1 for 1 yards and one touchdown while Travis Brannan completed -of- for yards. Malcolm Perry (304 rushing yards on 29 attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack while Travis Brannan ( receptions, yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Kansas State enters this one having just earned a 27-17 win over Iowa State. The team’s defense held its ground in the victory, keeping the Cyclones to only 185 passing yards and 51 yards on the ground. Tarique Milton had a productive showing in the defeat for Iowa State, recording 78 yards and a score on four catches. For Kansas State, Skylar Thompson completed five-of-12 passes for 57 yards and one interception. Jordon Brown (91 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running attack while Joshua Youngblood (one receptions, 12 yards) and Phillip Brooks (one catch, 19 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Navy has run the ball on 88.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas State has a rush percentage of 63.9 percent. The Midshipmen have produced 363.7 rush yards/game and have 51 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wildcats are putting up 189 rush yards per game and have 28 total rushing TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Midshipmen might hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has produced 6.1 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.3 to opponents. The Wildcats have rushed for 4.4 yards per carry and given up 4.9 YPC to opponents.

The Midshipmen offensive scheme has logged 95 yards per contest through the air overall and has nine passing scores so far. The Wildcats have produced 185.7 pass yards per game and have 12 total pass TDs.

Navy has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 110.8 yards and pass for 215.3 yards per game. The Kansas State D has given up 211.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 152.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wildcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.83 to opponents, while the Midshipmen have allowed a 6.36 ANY/A.

Offensively, Perry has amassed 920 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 41-of-75 attempts with six passing scores and three interceptions. Perry’s got a sparkling 9.88 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 14.50 over the past two games.

We’re looking for Midshipmen to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Malcolm Perry (zero receiving yards), Keoni-Kordell Makekau (181 rush yards, 88 receiving yards) and CJ Williams (264 rush yards, three rush TDs, two receiving TDs) have brought significant production to the offensive gameplans for Navy.

Skylar Thompson has connected on 153-of-255 passes for 1,945 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs for Kansas State. His ANY/A stands at 6.77 for the season and 5.40 over his last two games.

The Wildcats will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. Along with Chabastin Taylor (87 receiving yards), Jordon Brown (355 rush yards, four rush TDs) and James Gilbert (637 rush yards, six rush TDs) have gotten a lot of action lately.

Navy Midshipmen at Kansas State Wildcats Free Pick

SU Winner: Navy, ATS Winner: Navy, O/U: Under

Betting Notes

  • Kansas State has lost eight fumbles this season while Navy has lost 12.
  • The Navy defense has 27 sacks on the year while Kansas State has just 21.
  • As a team, Navy has produced 6.6 yards per carry over its past three games and 7.6 over its last two.
  • Kansas State has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.2 over its last two.
  • Navy has won nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 32-point loss to Notre Dame on November 16th accounting for the only slip-up over that span.