College Football Free Betting Pick: Louisville Cardinals at Miami (FL) Hurricanes

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The Louisville Cardinals (+5) are making a trip south to visit their conference counterpart Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium. ESPN2 will televise the action and kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Louisville Cardinals at Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Louisville is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 5 points in this ACC game. The Cardinals are also receiving +180 moneyline odds while the Hurricanes are -220. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 51.5 points. There will likely be some solid live betting opportunities in this game.

The game’s total has swung lower after initially being set at 53. The opening spread of -5 has yet to change.

The profitable Cardinals have gained 3.9 units so far and are 5-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-5.

The Hurricanes have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 21.6 units. The team is 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-5.

The Cardinals are 5-3 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against ACC opponents. The Hurricanes are 5-4 SU overall and 3-3 SU in conference play.

The Cardinals enter after a 28-21 victory over Virginia on October 26. Malik Cunningham completed six passes for just 126 yards and one touchdown. Javian Hawkins (136 rushing yards on 28 attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Cunningham (97 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win. Chatarius Atwell (six receptions, 122 yards, one TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (one catch, 10 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Miami (FL) is coming off of a 27-10 win over Florida State. The team’s defensive unit did its duty in the victory, holding the Seminoles to just 172 passing yards and 31 yards on the ground. Cam Akers was a bright spot in the loss for Florida State, recording 66 rushing yards on 22 attempts, along with 23 yards on three catches. For Miami (FL), Jarren Williams completed 21-of-37 passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns. DeeJay Dallas (61 yards on 18 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the ground attack in the win as Brevin Jordan (six receptions, 48 yards) and Jeff Thomas (four catches, 84 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.

Louisville has run the ball on 65.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Miami (FL) has a rush percentage of 47.1 percent. The Cardinals have produced 218.1 rush yards/game (including 193.6 per game against Atlantic Coast opponents) and have 16 scores via handoffs this year. The Hurricanes are averaging 111.3 rushing yards per game (101.2 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.

The Cards offensive scheme has logged 226.5 yards/contest in the air overall (249.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 16 passing scores so far. The Hurricanes have put up 269.3 pass yards per outing (271 in the ACC) and have 18 total pass TDs.

Louisville has allowed opponents to run for an average of 177.9 yards and pass for 259.4 yards per game. The Miami (FL) defense has given up 191.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 97.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Hurricanes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.6 to opponents, while the Cardinals have given up a 6.85 ANY/A.

Offensively, Cunningham has put up 946 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 66 percent of his 76 attempts with eight scores through the air and only one interception. He has an 11.42 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.27 over the past two games.

We expect the Louisville offense to mix it up in this one. Javian Hawkins, Chatarius Atwell and Malik Cunningham have collectively accounted for 513 total yards and five touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

In the host locker room, Jarren Williams has completed 111-of-164 passes for 1,399 yards, nine TDs and three INTs. Williams’ ANY/A sits at 6.96 for the season and 8.68 across his past two games.

K.J. Osborn (345 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns on the year), DeeJay Dallas (547 rush yards, seven rush TDs, 126 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Dee Wiggins (217 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have combined for 305 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns over the last couple of games.

These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.

Louisville Cardinals at Miami (FL) Hurricanes NCAA Tip

SU Winner: Miami (FL), ATS Winner: Miami (FL), O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • The Miami (FL) defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 34 times this year. Louisville has produced just 18 sacks.
  • The Miami (FL) offense has lost five fumbles in 2019 while Louisville has let seven get away.
  • The Cardinals offense has registered 11 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Hurricanes have accounted for six such plays.
  • The Louisville defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Miami (FL) has given up six such plays.
  • The Louisville offense has created 18 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Miami (FL) has created 11 such runs.
  • The Cardinals defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Hurricanes have given up five such runs.
  • Louisville has won four of its last five games SU, with a 35-point defeat to Clemson on October 19th accounting for the only loss over that span.
  • As a team, Louisville has produced 4.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.4 over its last two.
  • Miami (FL) has averaged 3.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 1.8 over its past two.