The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (-3.5) are heading west to take on the Texas State Bobcats at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium. This Thursday matchup will get going at 9:15 p.m. ET and spectators can watch the action on ESPNU. When the two teams met last year, Louisiana-Monroe beat Texas State by a pair of field goals 20-14.
Betting Preview: Texas State Bobcats vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Texas State is a live dog and is currently getting 3.5 points in this SBC game. The Warhawks are also receiving -175 moneyline odds while the Bobcats are +155. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 62 points. If Louisiana-Monroe starts trailing in the early stages, it will probably generate a solid live betting scenario.
This game’s line opened at 3. The total has not moved after it was initially established at 62.
The Warhawks have lost 1.0 unit so far and are 1-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 3-2.
The Bobcats have lost 1.0 unit this season. The team is 0-2-2 ATS and owns an even O/U record of 2-2.
The Warhawks have gone 2-3 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against conference opponents. The Bobcats are 2-3 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.
The Warhawks fell to Memphis 52-33 in a thumping where Caleb Evans completed only 23-of-44 passes for 286 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Josh Johnson (119 rushing yards on 19 attempts) and the signal-caller Evans (112 yards on 18 carries, two TDs) led the ground attack. Pederson (seven receptions, 82 yards, two TDs) and Markis McCray (five catches, 68 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Texas State just got a 24-3 win over Nicholls back in Week 5. The team’s defense held its ground in the victory, keeping the Colonels to only 145 passing yards and 75 rushing yards. Dai’Jean Dixon was a bright spot in the loss for Nicholls, recording 54 yards on five catches. For Texas State, Gresch Jensen completed 22-of-29 passes for 253 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Caleb Twyford (73 rushing yards on 17 attempts) spearheaded the running game while Jah’Marae Sheread (five receptions, 43 yards) and Micah Hilts (four catches, 64 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Louisiana-Monroe has run the ball on 53.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas State has a rush percentage of 43.6 percent. The Warhawks have run for 220.2 yards per game and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bobcats are logging 80.8 rushing yards per game and have five total rush TDs.
The Warhawks offensive scheme has tallied 249.4 yards/contest through the air overall and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Bobcats have put up 242.4 pass yards per contest and have six total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Louisiana-Monroe has allowed 256.2 rush yards and 250.6 pass yards per game. The Texas State D has allowed 189.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 221.0 yards per game on the ground. The Bobcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.72 to opposing QBs, while the Warhawks have allowed a 7.19 ANY/A.
Offensively, Evans is up to 886 passing yards on the year, and has completed 84-of-137 attempts with seven scores through the air and three interceptions. Evans has a 5.87 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.11 over the past two outings.
Look for a balanced approach offensively from Louisiana-Monroe in this one. Josh Johnson (505 rushing yards, four rush TDs this season), Markis McCray (179 receiving yards) and Caleb Evans (259 rush yards, four rush TDs, 0 receiving yards) have all played key roles of late.
Gresch Jensen has completed 97-of-151 passes for 992 yards, five TDs and six INTs for Texas State. His ANY/A stands at 4.47 for the year and 6.64 across his past two games.
We expect Jensen to attack all areas of the Louisiana-Monroe secondary. Caleb Twyford (99 receiving yards and one receiving TD this season), Javen Banks (96 receiving yards, one receiving TD), and Jah’Marae Sheread (148 receiving yards, one TD) have collectively notched 185 receiving yards over the last couple of games.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Texas State Bobcats NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Louisiana-Monroe, ATS Winner: Louisiana-Monroe, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- Texas State has lost one fumble this season while Louisiana-Monroe has lost two.
- The Louisiana-Monroe defense has twice as many sacks as Texas State this year (eight versus four).
- As a team, Louisiana-Monroe has averaged 5.2 yards per carry across its past three contests and 5.2 over its last two.
- Texas State has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.9 over its last two.
- The Over/Under for Louisiana-Monroe’s previous game was set at 65. The over cashed in the team’s 52-33 loss to Memphis.
- Over its last three games, Louisiana-Monroe is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
