College Football Free Betting Pick: Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns

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The No. 20 Kansas State Wildcats (+7) are set to face off against the Texas Longhorns (-7) at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium/Jamail Field. Kickoff for this crucial conference showdown is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPN is scheduled to televise the action. When the two squads faced one another a year ago, Texas got the victory 19-14.

Betting Preview: Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Wildcats

In this Saturday Big 12 game, Texas is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. The Wildcats are also receiving +210 moneyline odds while the Longhorns are -270. If one school can create a bunch of points early it’ll generate a worthy live betting opportunity. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 58.5 points.

Early action has slanted in the direction of the Longhorns, as the opening line was -5. The total hasn’t changed after being initially placed at 58.5.

The profitable Wildcats are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.1 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-5.

The Longhorns have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-4 ATS and the over’s hit in six of their games.

The Wildcats are 6-2 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Longhorns are 5-3 SU overall and are also 3-2 SU in conference play.

The Wildcats are coming off a resounding 38-10 win over Kansas last week. Skylar Thompson completed just nine passes on 16 attempts for 129 yards. Harry Trotter (92 yards on 20 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Thompson (127 yards on 17 carries, three TDs) led the running attack. Dalton Schoen (two receptions, 67 yards) and Nick Lenners (two catches, 19 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Texas just fell 37-27 to TCU. The team’s defense allowed the Horned Frogs to kill the clock by rushing for 162 yards on 41 attempts, including two rush TDs. Taye Barber had a solid showing in the win for TCU, recording 94 yards on five catches. For Texas, Sam Ehlinger completed 22-of-48 passes for 321 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. Keaontay Ingram (71 yards on 16 rush attempts) led the running game while Devin Duvernay (eight receptions, 173 yards, one TD) and Collin Johnson (seven catches, 101 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Kansas State has run the ball on 66.4 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 62.9 percent across possessions in conference play. Texas has a rush percentage of 48.8 percent, and has kept it on the ground 50.9 percent of the time when facing Big 12 opponents. The Wildcats have rushed for 217.3 yards/game (including 179.6 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 25 scores on the ground this year. The Longhorns are totaling 167.9 rushing yards per game (179.6 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.

The Wildcats offense has logged 171.6 yards per game in the air overall (170 per game versus conference opposition) and has seven passing TDs so far. The Longhorns have produced 308.8 pass yards per game (284 in the Big 12) and have 23 total pass scores.

Kansas State should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 166.8 yards and pass for 186.3 yards per game. The Texas D has allowed 305.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 160.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wildcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.10 to opponents, while the Longhorns have allowed a 7.34 ANY/A.

Offensively, Thompson is up to 1,123 passing yards this season, and has completed 60 percent of his 149 attempts with seven passing scores and only one interception. Thompson’s got a 7.22 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

We expect the Kansas State offense to mix it up in this one. Skylar Thompson (292 rushing yards, six rush TDs, 0 receiving yards on the year), Dalton Schoen (321 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Harry Trotter (226 rush yards, three rush TDs) have each played big roles lately.

For the home team, Sam Ehlinger has completed 168-of-259 passes for 1,979 yards, 19 TDs and six INTs. Ehlinger’s ANY/A sits at 7.11 for the season and 6.09 across his last two games.

Devin Duvernay (690 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns on the year), Keaontay Ingram (393 rush yards, three rush TDs, 144 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Collin Johnson (291 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have combined for 685 total yards and five touchdowns over the last two games.

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns NCAA Pick

SU Winner: Texas, ATS Winner: Texas, O/U: Under

Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for Kansas State’s last game was set at 53.5. The under cashed in the team’s 38-10 triumph over Kansas.
  • Kansas State, as a team, has averaged 4.7 yards per rush attempt across its last three outings and 5.3 over its last two.
  • Texas has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.1 over its past two.
  • The Texas offense has lost four fumbles this season while Kansas State has lost six.
  • In its last three matches, Kansas State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Texas’ last matchup going into it was 57. The over cashed in the team’s 37-27 loss to TCU.
  • Over its last three matchups, Texas is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Wildcats offense has recorded one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Longhorns have accounted for eight such plays.
  • The Kansas State defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Texas has given up 11 such plays.
  • The Kansas State offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Texas has created seven such runs.
  • The Wildcats defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Longhorns have given up 10 such runs.
  • The Kansas State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 14 times this season. Texas has registered 13 sacks.