The Illinois Fighting Illini (+14) are set to face off against their in-conference rival Minnesota Golden Gophers (-14) at TCF Bank Stadium. The crucial afternoon game will start at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to BTN.
Betting Preview: Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Illinois is a live dog and is currently getting 14 points in this Saturday Big 10 game. If they want to take the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to put up $600 in order to win $100 back on the Gophers (-600). The Fighting Illini are getting +425 moneyline odds. Some decent live betting scenarios could present themselves during this game, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 60 points.
The opening line was -14 while the total hasn’t moved since it was set initially at 60.
The Fighting Illini have lost 3.0 units so far and are 2-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-2.
The Golden Gophers have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 4.0 units. They’re 1-2-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-1.
The Fighting Illini are 2-2 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.
The Fighting Illini are looking to get back on track after a 42-38 defeat to Nebraska on September 21. The passing game could’ve been more effective as Brandon Peters completed only nine passes on 22 attempts for 78 yards, along with a score and a pick. Reggie Corbin (134 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) and Dre Brown (59 yards on six carries, one TD) led the running attack in the loss while Ricky Smalling (five receptions, 41 yards) and Brown (one catch, three yards) handled the receiving duties.
Minnesota just put together a 38-31 win over Purdue. The defense let the Boilermakers rush for 123 yards on 33 attempts, including two rush TDs. King Doerue had a good showing in the loss, recording 94 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 attempts for Purdue. For Minnesota, Tanner Morgan completed 21-of-22 passes for 396 yards and four touchdowns. Rodney Smith (115 rushing yards on 22 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the win while Tyler Johnson (eight receptions, 73 yards, one TD) and Rashod Bateman (six catches, 177 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching attack.
Illinois has run the ball on 56.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Minnesota has an overall rush percentage of 65.2 percent. The Fighting Illini have rushed for 181.3 yards/game and have nine scores via handoffs this year. The Gophers are totaling 115.8 rushing yards per game and have eight total rush TDs.
Judging by the early season results, it appears that the Fighting Illini ought to hold an edge when it comes to RB efficiency, as their running backs has generated 4.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.4 to opponents. The Golden Gophers have rushed for 2.6 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 3.8 to opponents.
The Fighting Illini offensive scheme has logged 199 yards per contest in the air overall and has 10 passing scores so far. The Gophers have recorded 273.8 pass yards per outing and also have 10 total pass TDs.
Illinois has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 146 yards and pass for 261.8 yards per game. The Minnesota defense has allowed 211.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 119.3 yards per game on the ground. The Gophers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.43 to opposing QBs, while the Fighting Illini have given up a 6.66 ANY/A.
Morgan has been more productive than Peters of late. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 11.47 for the season and 11.40 over his last two games while Peters’ ANY/A is 6.00 (and 4.18 over the last two games).
When these two squads faced each other a year ago, Illinois knocked Minnesota off soundly 55-31.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers Free Prediction
SU Winner: Minnesota, ATS Winner: Minnesota, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Illinois’ last game was set at 62. The over cashed in the team’s 42-38 loss to Nebraska.
- As a team, Illinois has produced 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its last two.
- Minnesota has averaged 2.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 2.3 over its past two.
- The Minnesota offense has lost four fumbles this season while Illinois has let three get away.
- Over its last three games, Illinois is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Minnesota’s last match was set at 56.5. The over cashed in the 38-31 triumph over Purdue.
- In its last three matchups, Minnesota is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Fighting Illini offense has created one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Golden Gophers have put up six such plays.
- The Illinois defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Minnesota has given up zero such plays.
- The Illinois offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Minnesota has created zero such runs.
- The Fighting Illini defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Golden Gophers have given up two such runs.
- The Illinois defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 14 times this year. Minnesota has recorded just eight sacks.
