The Lobos (+4) are set to welcome their conference foe Colorado State Rams (-4) to New Mexico. Fans can tune in to the action on CBS Sports Network and this Friday game gets going at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Colorado State Rams at New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico is the underdog in this MWC game and is currently getting 4 points. The Rams are also receiving -185 moneyline odds while the Lobos are +165. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 66.5 points, and judging by how things are lining up, this showdown ought to offer some in-game betting opportunities.
The Rams are 3-3 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 3.0 units so far in 2019. The team’s posted an O/U record of 3-3.
The Lobos have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-2.
The Rams have gone 1-5 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against MWC opponents. The Lobos are 2-3 SU overall and 0-1 SU in conference play.
The Rams hope to bounce back after a 24-10 defeat to San Diego State last week. Patrick O’Brien completed 19 passes for 217 yards, along with a score and a pick. The Rams rushed for just 18 yards as a team in the defeat.
New Mexico just fell 32-21 to San Jose State. The defensive secondary allowed the Spartans to air it out for 412 yards and two touchdowns. Tre Walker had a good showing in the win for San Jose State, posting 130 yards on seven catches. As a group, the Lobos collectively completed 11-of-26 passes for 161 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. Sheriron Jones went seven-for-16 for 127 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions while Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti was four-of-10 for 34 yards and one interception. Ahmari Davis (96 yards on 22 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Jones (104 yards on 11 carries, one TD) handled the running attack while Marcus Williams (two receptions, 38 yards) and Jordan Kress (two catches, 46 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Colorado State has run the ball on 46.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico has an overall rush percentage of 58.8 percent. The Rams have produced 154.3 rush yards per game (including 48.5 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have nine scores on the ground this year. The Lobos are averaging 212.2 rushing yards per game and have 10 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Lobos may have the edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has produced 5.0 yards per carry while the defense has allowed 3.7 YPC to opponents. The Rams have ran for 4.6 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 5.2 to opponents.
The Rams offensive scheme has tallied 302.3 yards per game in the air overall (217 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing TDs so far. The Lobos have put up 229.2 pass yards per game and have six total pass scores.
Colorado State should possess an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s let opponents run for an average of 214.8 yards and pass for 191.7 yards per game. The New Mexico defense has allowed 386 yards per game to opposing passers and 127.6 yards per game on the ground. The Rams are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.02 to opposing QBs, while the Lobos have allowed an ugly 9.73 ANY/A.
Offensively, O’Brien is up to 757 passing yards this season, and has completed 63 percent of his 93 attempts with three scores through the air and two interceptions. He’s got a 6.90 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.80 over the last two games.
Nate Craig-Myers (156 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), Dante Wright (430 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Marvin Kinsey Jr. (548 rush yards, three rush TDs, 198 receiving yards, two TDs) have each played big roles lately.
Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti has completed 26-of-51 passes for 521 yards, three TDs and two INTs for New Mexico. His ANY/A stands at 9.63 for the season and 1.37 across his past two outings.
We’re thinking the Lobos will control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with QB Sheriron Jones (zero receiving yards this season), Ahmari Davis (358 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Bryson Carroll (135 rush yards, one rush TD) have really been focal points in the Lobos’ recent offensive strategies.
When these two schools faced each other last year, Colorado State emerged victorious by a final score of 20-18.
Colorado State Rams at New Mexico Lobos Free Prediction
SU Winner: Colorado State, ATS Winner: Colorado State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Rams offense has tallied eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Lobos have put up seven such plays.
- The Colorado State defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Mexico has given up 12 such plays.
- Both defenses have produced 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Colorado State offense has recorded 26 running plays of 10+ yards while New Mexico has accounted for 32 such plays.
- The Rams defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Lobos have given up seven such runs.
- The Colorado State defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 13 times this season. New Mexico has recorded nine sacks.
- Colorado State, as a team, has rushed for 4.0 yards per attempt over its past three games and 1.6 over its last two.
- New Mexico has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.5 over its past two.
- In its last three matchups, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Colorado State’s last game was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-10 defeat to San Diego State.
- Over its last three matches, Colorado State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for New Mexico’s last matchup was set at 69.5. The under cashed in the 32-21 loss to San Jose State.
- New Mexico has lost four of its last five games SU, with a three-point triumph over New Mexico State on September 21st representing the one win over that stretch.
