In a battle of two teams that like running the football, No. 13 Ducks (-21) are gearing up to welcome their Pac-12 nemesis Colorado Buffaloes to Oregon. The opening kickoff for this importantgame is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET and FS1 will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Colorado Buffaloes vs. Oregon Ducks
Oregon is heavily favored in this matchup and is currently giving up 21 points to Colorado. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 58 points. There could be some good live betting opportunities while this showdown is underway.
This matchup’s line opened at -20 but has recently moved down to -21. The game’s O/U hasn’t moved after being initially set at 58.
The Buffaloes have gained 2.2 units so far and are 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U mark of 3-1-1.
The Ducks have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-3 ATS and own an O/U record of 1-4.
The Buffaloes are 3-2 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Ducks are 4-1 SU overall and 2-0 SU in conference play.
The Buffaloes fell to Arizona 35-30 in a matchup where their secondary allowed the Wildcats to air it out for 404 yards and three touchdowns. On the offensive side of the ball, Steven Montez completed 28-of-42 passes for 299 yards and one touchdown. Alex Fontenot (94 yards on 21 rush attempts) and Jaren Mangham (34 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack while Tony Brown (10 receptions, 141 yards) and Fontenot (five catches, 34 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Oregon is coming off of a 17-7 win over California. Justin Herbert completed 20-of-33 passes for 214 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Travis Dye (81 rushing yards on 15 attempts) and CJ Verdell (46 yards on 10 carries) handled the running game as Jacob Breeland (five receptions, 87 yards) and Jaylon Redd (five catches, 36 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Each of these teams has a remarkably similar (51-49) run-pass ratio on the season. The Buffaloes have produced 147.2 rush yards per game (including 149.5 per game against Pac-12 opponents) and have nine scores on the ground this year. The Ducks are putting up 161.8 rushing yards per game (125.5 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it appears the Ducks should hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has produced 4.5 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 2.9 to opponents. The Buffaloes have ran for 4.0 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.3 to opponents.
The Buffaloes offense has averaged 300.2 yards in the air overall (337 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Ducks have put up 286 pass yards per outing (237 against Pac-12 foes) and have 17 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Colorado has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 157 yards and pass for 313.6 yards per game. The Oregon defense has given up 166 yards per game to opposing passers and 95.4 yards per game on the ground. The Ducks are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 2.25 to opposing QBs, while the Buffaloes have given up a whopping 8.52 ANY/A.
Offensively, Montez has put up 1,126 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has completed 65 percent of his 146 attempts with seven scores through the air and only two interceptions. Montez’s got a 7.52 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 9.94 over the last two games.
Tony Brown (292 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), Alex Fontenot (303 rush yards, three rush TDs, 52 receiving yards) and Dimitri Stanley (143 receiving yards, two TDs) have each played key roles recently.
In the home locker room, Justin Herbert has completed 97-of-138 passes for 1,082 yards, 12 TDs and one INT. Herbert’s ANY/A sits at 8.80 for the season and 7.69 over his past two outings.
We’re looking for the Ducks to control tempo by feeding the running backs early and often. In addition to Jacob Breeland (274 receiving yards, three receiving TDs this season), CJ Verdell (195 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Travis Dye (233 rush yards) have brought significant production to the Oregon offense.
These two Pac-12 adversaries did not get a chance to play each other last year.
Colorado Buffaloes at Oregon Ducks NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Oregon, ATS Winner: Colorado, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Buffaloes offense has created four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Ducks have accounted for two such plays.
- The Colorado defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Oregon has given up zero such plays.
- The Colorado offense has created four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Oregon has created five such runs.
- The Buffaloes defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Ducks have given up four such runs.
- The Oregon D has tallied more than twice the sack total of Colorado this year (19 versus nine).
- Colorado has rushed for 3.7 yards per attempt over its last three contests and 3.9 over its last two.
- Oregon has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.6 over its past two.
