College Football Free Betting Pick – Boise State Broncos vs. San Jose State Spartans

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The No. 21 Boise State Broncos (-16.5) are traveling west to battle their conference rival San Jose State Spartans at CEFCU Stadium. This showdown will kick off pretty late for those on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS Sports Network.

Betting Preview: San Jose State Spartans vs. Boise State Broncos

San Jose State is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 16.5 points in this Saturday MWC game. If they want to take the moneyline, bettors would currently have to wager $1,200 in order to win $100 back on the Broncos (-1200). The Spartans are getting +710 moneyline odds. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 58 points, and multiple good live betting possibilities could present themselves throughout the game.

The line opened at 16 while the total has not moved after it was initially set at 58.

The Broncos are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.1 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 4-3.

The Spartans are up 0.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-3-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-5.

The Broncos have gone 6-1 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against conference opponents. The Spartans are 4-4 SU overall and 1-3 SU in conference play.

The Broncos dropped one to BYU 28-25 in a matchup where their defense allowed the Cougars to eat up the clock by rushing for 121 yards on 35 attempts, including two rush TDs. Matt Bushman had a productive day for the Cougars in that one with 101 yards and two touchdowns on five catches. On the offensive side, Chase Cord completed 18 passes for only 185 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. George Holani (97 rushing yards on 20 attempts) led the ground attack in the loss. Octavius Evans (five receptions, 77 yards, one TD) and John Bates (three catches, 39 yards) shared the receiving duties.

San Jose State is coming off of a 34-29 win over Army West Point. The team’s defensive unit let the Black Knights run for 326 yards on 70 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Christian Anderson had a productive showing in the defeat for Army West Point, recording 87 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 16 attempts. For San Jose State, Josh Love completed 20-of-31 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns. DeJon Packer (63 rushing yards on nine attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the win while Tre Walker (six receptions, 94 yards) and Isaiah Hamilton (three catches, 88 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

Boise State has run the ball on 51.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Jose State has an overall rush percentage of 39.7 percent. The Broncos have run for 167.6 yards/game (including 160 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 12 scores via handoffs this year. The Spartans are averaging 85.1 rushing yards per game (54.8 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.

It seems like the Broncos ought to hold an edge when it comes to efficiency in the ground game. Their backfield has logged 4.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.8 YPC to opponents. The Spartans have registered 3.3 yards per carry and given up 4.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Broncos offensive scheme has averaged 302.1 yards in the air overall (300 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Spartans have recorded 311 pass yards per outing (329 against MWC competition) and have 17 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Boise State has allowed 124.4 rush yards and 205.3 pass yards per game. The San Jose State defense has given up 206.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 236.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Spartans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.97 to opponents, while the Broncos have given up a 5.81 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Cord has amassed 305 yards on the year, and has connected on 55 percent of his 47 attempts with five scores through the air and two interceptions. He has a 6.24 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.06 over the last two games.

Josh Love has completed 155-of-257 passes for 2,137 yards, 13 TDs and two INTs for San Jose State. His ANY/A stands at 8.53 for the season and 8.56 across his last two outings.

These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other a year ago.

Boise State Broncos vs. San Jose State Spartans Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Broncos, ATS Winner: Broncos, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Broncos offense has produced six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Spartans have accounted for 10 such plays.
  • The Boise State defense has allowed six pass plays of 40+ yards, while San Jose State has given up five such plays.
  • The Boise State offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while San Jose State has created five such runs.
  • The Broncos defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Spartans have given up 10 such runs.
  • The Boise State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 21 times this year. San Jose State has recorded just 12 sacks.
  • Boise State has averaged 5.2 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 4.8 over its last two.
  • San Jose State has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.1 over its last two.