College Football Free Betting Pick: Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs

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The No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs (+2.5) are set to play host to their conference counterpart No. 11 Baylor Bears (-2.5) at Amon G. Carter Stadium. FS1 will broadcast the action and kickoff will take place at 12:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs

In this Saturday Big 12 matchup, Baylor is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Bears are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Horned Frogs are +120. This Big 12 matchup should provide several decent in-game betting scenarios, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 51 points.

With the game’s over/under initially set at 52, Sharp bettors have been taking the under.

The surprising Bears have gained 6.1 units so far in 2019 and are 4-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-4.

The Horned Frogs have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 4.3 units. They’re 3-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-3.

The Bears are 8-0 straight up (SU), including 5-0 SU against conference opponents. The Horned Frogs are 4-4 SU overall and are also 2-3 SU in conference play.

The Bears are looking to remain unbeaten after a 17-14 victory over West Virginia last week. Charlie Brewer completed 20-of-26 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns. Denzel Mims (five receptions, 99 yards, one TD) and Tyquan Thornton (five catches, 86 yards) handled the receiving duties.

On November 2, Oklahoma State knocked off this TCU team by a score of 34-27. The Horned Frogs defense allowed the Cowboys to eat up the clock by running for 301 yards on 41 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Chuba Hubbard was on a different level for Oklahoma State, recording 223 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 attempts. For TCU, Max Duggan completed 21-of-39 passes for 258 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Duggan (86 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) and Darius Anderson (52 yards on 13 carries) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Taye Barber (seven receptions, 60 yards) and Jalen Reagor (seven catches, 128 yards) led the TCU pass-catchers.

When glancing at offensive play-calling, each of these teams sports a similar (56-44) run-pass ratio on the season. The Bears have run for 199.4 yards per game (including 167 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 22 scores via handoffs this year. The Horned Frogs are putting up 220.3 rushing yards per game (196 in conference) and have 18 total rush TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it seems like the Bears might have an edge when it comes to efficiency in the ground game. Their running backs has produced 5.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Horned Frogs have tallied 5.0 yards per carry and allowed 3.8 YPC to opponents.

The Bears offensive scheme has logged 280.9 yards per contest in the air overall (303.2 per game against conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Horned Frogs have produced 221.5 pass yards per game (245 in the Big 12) and have 12 total pass scores.

Defensively, Baylor has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 122 yards and throw for 219.1 yards per game. The TCU defense has given up 195.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 128.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.54 to opposing QBs, while the Horned Frogs have given up a 5.21 ANY/A.

Offensively, Brewer has put up 1,831 passing yards this year, and has completed 67 percent of his 205 attempts with 13 scores through the air and only three interceptions. Brewer has a pristine 8.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 10.85 over the last two outings.

JaMycal Hasty, Tyquan Thornton and Josh Fleeks have combined for 618 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

On the other sideline, Max Duggan has connected on 101-of-181 passes for 1,132 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs. Duggan’s ANY/A sits at 5.75 for the season and 5.28 over his past two outings.

Look for Duggan to spread the ball around early and often in this one. Jalen Reagor (399 receiving yards and three receiving TDs this season), Max Duggan (zero receiving yards), and Taye Barber (97 receiving yards) have collectively recorded 337 receiving yards over the last two games.

When these two squads faced each other a year ago, TCU won by a touchdown 16-9.

Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs NCAA Prediction

SU Winner: Baylor, ATS Winner: Baylor, O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • The O/U for Baylor’s last game was 56.5. The under cashed in the team’s 17-14 triumph over West Virginia.
  • Baylor has rushed for 4.4 yards per attempt over its last three contests and 4.3 over its last two.
  • TCU has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 4.1 over its past two.
  • The TCU offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Baylor has lost seven.
  • In its last three matchups, Baylor is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for TCU’s previous game was set at 58.5. The over cashed in that 34-27 loss to Oklahoma State.
  • In its last three contests, TCU is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Bears offense has recorded nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Horned Frogs have accounted for five such plays.
  • The Baylor defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while TCU has given up seven such plays.
  • The Baylor offense has created 20 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while TCU has created 16 such runs.
  • Both teams have allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards and 30 running plays of 10+ yards.
  • The Baylor defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 26 times this season. TCU has recorded just 15 sacks.