In a game between two squads that are nationally ranked in the Top 21 overall, the No. 14 Utah State Aggies (+3) are set to take on their MWC nemesis No. 21 Boise State Broncos (-3) at Albertsons Stadium. ESPN owns the TV rights and the game’s scheduled for 10:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Boise State Broncos vs. Utah State Aggies
The Aggies enter into this Saturday MWC game as the dog here and they’re currently getting 3 points. The Aggies are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -140. Multiple good live betting scenarios should exist during the game, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 68 points.
The opening line was -3. The game’s total has not moved since being initially set at 68.
The profitable Aggies are 9-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 5.0 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 8-2-1.
The Broncos have lost 0.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-4-1 ATS and own an even O/U record of 5-5-1.
The Aggies have gone 10-1 straight up (SU), including 7-0 SU against conference opponents. The Broncos are 9-2 SU overall and 6-1 SU in conference play.
The Aggies just pulled off a 29-24 win over Colorado State last week. Jordan Love completed 15-of-24 passes for just 169 yards and one touchdown. Gerold Bright (89 yards on 13 rushes) and Darwin Thompson (48 yards on 13 carries) mounted the ground attack in the win while Ron’quavion Tarver (six receptions, 69 yards) and Bright (three catches, 23 yards) manned the receiving duties.
The Boise State Broncos take the field this week having just earned a 45-14 win over New Mexico. The defensive unit allowed the Lobos to run for 159 yards on 45 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Delane Hart-Johnson was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 77 yards and a score on four catches for New Mexico. For Boise State, Brett Rypien completed 17-of-27 passes for 222 yards and three touchdowns. Alexander Mattison (145 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) led the ground game in the win while Sean Modster (nine receptions, 129 yards, three TDs) led the pass-catching attack.
Each squad sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Utah State has run the ball on 52.9 percent of its offensive possessions while Boise State has an overall rush percentage of 51.3. Having said that, the Aggies have produced 216.5 rush yards/game (including 220.6 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 34 scores via handoffs this year. The Broncos haven’t been quite as productive. They’re putting up 159.5 rushing yards per game (156.6 in conference) and have 20 total rush TDs.
Based on the numbers so far, it seems like the Aggies might have the edge when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their backfield has logged 5.7 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Broncos have recorded 4.2 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 3.7 to opponents.
The Aggies offense has tallied 282.1 yards/contest in the air overall (308.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 25 passing TDs so far. The Broncos have recorded 305.5 pass yards per outing (292 in the MWC) and have 29 total pass scores.
Utah State has let opponents rush for an average of 140.2 yards and pass for 233.7 yards per game. The Boise State defense has given up 226.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 128.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aggies are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.53 to opponents, while the Broncos have given up a 6.51 ANY/A.
Offensively, Love has amassed 2,354 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 185-of-285 attempts with 20 scores through the air and only four interceptions. Love’s got a pristine 8.64 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 11.82 over the past two games.
We’re looking for Aggies to control the pace by pounding the defense with their running backs. Ron’quavion Tarver (526 yards, six TDs) has been a recent factor in the passing game, but backfield mates Darwin Thompson (750 rush yards, 13 rush TDs, 221 receiving yards) and Gerold Bright (723 rush yards, seven rush TDs, 99 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have been big focal points in the offensive gameplans for Utah State.
Brett Rypien has completed 239-of-355 passes for 3,001 yards, 27 TDs and six INTs for Boise State. His ANY/A stands at 8.20 for the year and 8.50 across his past two games.
The Broncos also prefer to keep their running backs involved. In addition to Alexander Mattison (146 receiving yards), Sean Modster (789 receiving yards and seven receiving TDs) and A.J. Richardson (661 receiving yards and eight TDs) have gotten a lot of action lately.
When these two teams faced each other last year, Boise State won soundly 41-14.
Utah State Aggies vs. Boise State Broncos Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: Utah State, ATS Winner: Utah State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Aggies offense has registered eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Broncos have accounted for 12 such plays.
- The Utah State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while Boise State has given up eight such plays.
- The Utah State offense has created 28 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Boise State has created 11 such runs.
- Both defenses have allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards and 47 running plays of 10+ yards.
- The Boise State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 36 times this season. Utah State has registered just 27 sacks.
- As a team, Utah State has produced 7.1 yards per carry over its past three games and 6.4 over its last two.
- Boise State has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.8 over its past two.
- Over its last three games, Boise State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Utah State’s last game was 66.5. The under cashed in the team’s 29-24 victory over Colorado State.
- In its last three matches, Utah State is 2-1 ATS.
- The Over/Under for Boise State’s previous game going into it was 61.5. The under cashed in the 45-14 win over New Mexico.
