College Football Free ATS Pick: Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron Zips

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The Eastern Michigan Eagles and Akron Zips are set to do battle on the turf at Summa Field at InfoCision Stadium. The game is scheduled to kick off at 6:00 p.m. ET and ESNN has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Akron Zips

The Eagles have recorded 0.1 units so far in 2019 and are 3-6 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an O/U mark of 5-3-1.

The Zips have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 10.7 units. The team is 0-9 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-5.

The Eagles are 4-5 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against MAC opponents. The Zips are 0-9 SU overall and 0-5 SU in conference play.

The Eagles dropped one to Buffalo 43-14 in a thumping where their defense allowed the Bulls to rush for 252 yards on 62 attempts, including five rush TDs. Offensively, the Eagles completed 14-of-25 passes for 185 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Preston Hutchinson went nine-for-15 for 90 yards and one interception while Mike Glass III completed five-of-10 for 95 yards and one touchdown. As a team, the Eagles rushed for just 25 yards in the defeat.

Akron could be showing signs of mailing it in after a 29-point loss to Bowling Green back in Week 10. Kato Nelson completed nine-of-24 passes for 60 yards and two interceptions. Nelson (-10 rushing yards on 14 attempts) spearheaded the running game while Nate Stewart (three receptions, 26 yards) and Jeremiah Knight (three catches, 23 yards) led all Akron pass-catchers in the loss.

Looking at offensive play-calling, each team has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Eastern Michigan has run the ball on 45.8 percent of its offensive possessions while Akron has an overall rush percentage of 44.4. Having said that, the Eagles have produced 99.4 rush yards per game (including 97 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Zips haven’t been as successful. They’re averaging 52.9 rushing yards per game (53.6 in conference) and have two total rush TDs.

The Eagles offensive scheme has averaged 278.1 yards in the air overall (276.6 per game versus conference opposition) and has 19 passing scores so far. The Zips have produced 202.7 pass yards per outing (160 against MAC competition) and have nine total pass TDs.

Eastern Michigan has let opponents run for an average of 209.3 yards and throw for 236.2 yards per game. The Akron defense has given up 187.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 202.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Eagles are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.41 to opposing QBs, while the Zips have given up an 8.16 ANY/A.

Mike Glass III probably has the advantage over Nelson in this matchup, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 6.61for the season and 8.75 over his last two outings. Nelson’s ANY/A is 4.83 for the year and -2.03 across his past two outings.

When these two schools met a year ago, Eastern Michigan won soundly 27-7.

Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Akron Zips Free Pick

SU Winner: Eastern Michigan

Team Betting Notes

  • The Eastern Michigan defense has 14 sacks on the year while Akron has just six.
  • The Akron offense has lost 12 fumbles this season while the Eastern Michigan offense has lost four.
  • The Eagles offense has created five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Zips have accounted for six such plays.
  • The Eastern Michigan defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Akron has given up six such plays.
  • The Eastern Michigan offense has created six rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Akron has created zero such runs.
  • The Eagles defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Zips have given up nine such runs.
  • Eastern Michigan has lost five of its last six games SU, with a seven-point win over Western Michigan on October 19th accounting for the only victory over that span.
  • Eastern Michigan, as a team, has rushed for 3.7 yards per attempt over its last three contests and 3.7 over its last two.
  • Akron has averaged 1.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 2.2 over its last two.