College Football Betting Free Pick: Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs

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Two schools that like to keep it on the ground, No. 6 Bulldogs of Georgia (-17) are gearing up to welcome the Missouri Tigers to Sanford Stadium. This key SEC game is scheduled to get going at 7:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPN.

Betting Preview: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers

Missouri is a big road underdog in this SEC game and is currently getting 17 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to put down $1,400 to win $100 back on the Dawgs (-1400). The Tigers are getting +780 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points, and if one program catches a lucky break in the early stages, it’ll likely result in a decent betting opportunity in-game.

The hapless Tigers have lost 10.2 units so far and are 4-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an Over-Under mark of 2-6.

The Bulldogs are up 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-4 ATS and also have an O/U record of 2-6.

The Tigers have gone 5-3 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against SEC opponents. The Bulldogs are 7-1 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.

When these two schools met a year ago, Georgia knocked Missouri off by a pair of touchdowns 43-29.

Georgia enters this matchup on a two-game losing streak while Missouri has come out on top in its last two in a row. The Tigers are looking to get back in stride after a 29-7 loss to Kentucky on October 26. The Tigers defense allowed the Wildcats to eat up the clock by rushing for 297 yards on 48 attempts, including four rush TDs. On the offensive side, the Tigers completed 14-of-29 passes for 164 yards and one touchdown. Kelly Bryant went 10-for-19 for 130 yards and one touchdown while Taylor Powell completed four-of-10 for 34 yards. Larry Rountree III (58 yards on 15 rush attempts) led the ground attack. Jonathan Nance (three receptions, 23 yards) and Dawson Downing (three catches, 11 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Georgia just picked up a 24-17 win over Florida. Jake Fromm completed 20-of-30 passes for 279 yards and two touchdowns. D’Andre Swift (86 rushing yards on 25 attempts) spearheaded the running game while Lawrence Cager (seven receptions, 132 yards, one TD) and Herrien (four catches, 46 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Each team has a strikingly similar (57-43) run-pass ratio on the season. The Tigers have produced 184.4 rush yards per game (including 176.3 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Dawgs are putting up 222.1 rush yards per game (217.6 in conference) and have 18 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Dawgs might hold an advantage when it comes to RB efficiency, as their backfield has logged 5.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 2.8 to opponents. The Tigers have recorded 4.4 yards per carry while allowing 3.7 YPC to opponents.

The Tigers offense has averaged 244.1 yards through the air overall (215 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Dawgs have produced 240 pass yards per outing (211 in the SEC) and have 13 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Missouri should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 136.9 rush yards and 144.5 pass yards per game. The Georgia D has given up 190.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 77.6 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.82 to opponents, while the Dawgs have given up a 4.6 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Bryant has put up 1,705 yards this year. He’s completed 64 percent of his 199 attempts with 13 passing scores and only four interceptions. He’s got an 8.06 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 4.35 over the past two games.

The Tigers have tried to control the clock by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Kam Scott (198 yards) has contributed in the receiving game lately, but the RB tandem of Tyler Badie (295 rush yards, two rush TDs, 292 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Larry Rountree III (615 rush yards, seven rush TDs) have really been focal points in the offensive game scripts for Missouri.

Jake Fromm has managed to complete 134-of-192 passes for 1,650 yards, 11 TDs and three INTs for Georgia. His ANY/A sits at 8.75 for the season and 8.43 across his past two games.

The Dawgs will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. Along with Lawrence Cager (377 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), D’Andre Swift (659 rush yards, five rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Brian Herrien (264 rush yards, four rush TDs, 67 receiving yards) have gotten a multitude of action lately.

Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs Free Pick

SU Winner: Georgia, ATS Winner: Georgia, O/U: Under

Betting Notes

  • The Georgia defense has sacked opposing QBs 18 times this season. Missouri has recorded 13 sacks.
  • The Georgia offense has lost four fumbles in 2019 while Missouri has lost six.
  • The Tigers offense has recorded eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have put up five such plays.
  • The Missouri defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Georgia has given up five such plays.
  • The Missouri offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Georgia has created 13 such runs.
  • The Tigers defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Bulldogs have given up three such runs.
  • The O/U for Georgia’s last game was set at 48. The under cashed in the 24-17 victory over Florida.
  • In its last three matchups, Georgia is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • Over its last three games, Missouri is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Missouri’s last game going into it was 43.5. The under cashed in the team’s 29-7 loss to Kentucky.
  • Missouri, as a team, has rushed for 4.4 yards per attempt across its last three games and 3.8 over its last two.
  • Georgia has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its last two.