College Football Betting Free Pick: Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks

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The Bowling Green Falcons (+19) aren’t traveling far to battle their MAC counterpart Miami (OH) RedHawks at Fred C. Yager Stadium. Kickoff for this showdown is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET and ESPNU will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks

Bowling Green is a big road underdog in this MAC game and is currently getting 19 points. The Falcons are also receiving +830 moneyline odds while the RedHawks are -1550. This MAC matchup should provide several decent in-game betting scenarios, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 51.5 points.

The Falcons have lost 2.0 units so far and are 3-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 2-7.

The RedHawks are up 3.5 units this season. The team is 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-4.

The Falcons are 3-6 straight up (SU), including 2-3 SU against MAC opponents. The RedHawks are 5-4 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.

The Falcons are trying to keep things going following a solid 35-6 victory over Akron on November 2. Grant Loy completed 12-of-20 passes for just 113 yards and one touchdown. Andrew Clair (only 86 rushing yards on 29 attempts, but two TDs) and Bryson Denley (62 yards on 20 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Quintin Morris (four receptions, 53 yards, one TD) and Julian Ortega-Jones (three catches, 26 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.

Miami (OH) just earned a 24-21 win over Ohio. Brett Gabbert completed 10-of-18 passes for 149 yards and one touchdown. Jaylon Bester (84 rushing yards on 15 attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the running game while Jack Sorenson (three receptions, 44 yards, one TD) and Maurice Thomas (two catches, seven yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

Each team has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Bowling Green has run the ball on 59.7 percent of its offensive possessions while Miami (OH) has a rush percentage of 60.8. The Falcons have produced 164.7 rush yards per game (including 171.6 per game against Mid-American opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The RedHawks are putting up 124.7 rush yards per game (147.8 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Falcons might have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has yielded only 29 sacks while the D-line registered 15 sacks. The RedHawks, on the other hand, have given up 20 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 29 occasions.

The Falcons offense has tallied 163 yards per contest through the air overall (162.6 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing scores so far. The RedHawks have put up 169.8 pass yards per outing (196 in the MAC) and have six total pass TDs.

Defensively, Bowling Green has allowed opponents to run for an average of 214.4 yards and pass for 228.4 yards per game. The Miami (OH) defense has allowed 202.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 190.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The RedHawks are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.96 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have given up a 7.49 ANY/A.

Gabbert probably has the edge over Loy in this matchup. The RedHawks man under center has an adjusted net yards per pass attempt 5.51 for the season and 7.08 over his past two games while Loy’s ANY/A is 4.22 (and 2.84 over the last two outings).

When these two teams met a year ago, Miami (OH) earned the win 38-23.

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Miami (OH), ATS Winner: Bowling Green, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The O/U for Bowling Green’s previous game was set at 49.5. The under cashed in the team’s 35-6 victory over Akron.
  • Bowling Green has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.2 over its last two.
  • Miami (OH) has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.9 over its past two.
  • Miami (OH) has lost six fumbles this season while Bowling Green has lost two.
  • In its last three matches, Bowling Green is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Miami (OH)’s previous matchup going into it was 57. The under cashed in the 24-21 victory over Ohio.
  • In its last three matchups, Miami (OH) is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Falcons offense has tallied four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the RedHawks have accounted for seven such plays.
  • Both defenses have allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Bowling Green defense has given up 10 pass plays of 30+ yards while Miami (OH) has yielded 14 such plays.
  • The Bowling Green offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Miami (OH) has created 11 such runs.
  • The Falcons defense has allowed 20 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the RedHawks have given up 11 such runs.
  • The Bowling Green defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this year. Miami (OH) has recorded 20 sacks.