Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans: Week 13 Free Pick

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The Cleveland Browns (+5) are heading southwest to take on the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. CBS is scheduled to have the TV rights and the opening kickoff is pegged for 1:00 p.m. ET.

Week 13 Betting Preview: Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

In this Sunday AFC game, Houston is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 5 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently need to wager $200 in order to win $100 back on the Texans (-200). The Browns are getting +170 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points. It appears that there should be some good in-game betting opportunities in this contest.

The Browns have lost 0.8 units so far in 2018 and are 7-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-5.

The Texans are up 3.3 units this season. The team is 5-5-1 ATS and owns an O/U record of 5-6.

The Browns have gone an ugly 4-6-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Texans are 8-3 SU.

The Browns are on the upswing after a 35-20 victory over Cincinnati in Week 12 in which Baker Mayfield completed 19-of-26 passes for 258 yards and four touchdowns. Nick Chubb (84 rushing yards on 28 attempts, one TD) led the running attack. David Njoku (five receptions, 63 yards, one TD) and Antonio Callaway (four catches, 62 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Houston is coming off of a 34-17 win over Tennessee last week. The defensive unit let the Titans pass for 303 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 105 yards. Corey Davis had a productive showing in the loss for Tennessee, posting 39 rushing yards on one attempt, along with 96 yards on four catches. For Houston, Deshaun Watson completed 19-of-24 passes for 210 yards and two touchdowns. Alfred Blue (49 rushing yards on 13 attempts) and Lamar Miller (162 yards on 12 carries, one TD) mounted the running game while DeAndre Hopkins (five receptions, 74 yards) and Demaryius Thomas (four catches, 38 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Cleveland has run the ball on 43.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Houston has a rush percentage of 50.4 percent. The Browns have produced 128.7 rush yards/game and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Texans are totaling 136.5 rush yards per game and have six total rushing TDs.

The Browns offense has logged 246.8 yards/game through the air overall and has 19 passing scores so far. The Texans have produced 255.2 pass yards per contest and have 20 total pass TDs.

Cleveland has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 131.8 yards and pass for 298.1 yards per game. The Houston defense has given up 259.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 96.8 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Browns have given up an ANY/A of 5.86 to opposing QBs, while the Texans are yielding an ANY/A of 6.03.

Offensively, Mayfield is up to 2,026 passing yards this year. He’s completed 61 percent of his 291 attempts with 14 passing scores and seven interceptions. He has a 5.87 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 13.35 over the last two games.

The Browns will likely try to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Antonio Callaway (349 yards, three TDs), Nick Chubb (487 rush yards, five rush TDs, 59 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Duke Johnson Jr. (131 rush yards, 304 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) have been focal points in the Cleveland offensive scheme.

For the home team, Deshaun Watson has managed to complete 204-of-309 passes for 2,599 yards, 19 TDs and seven INTs. Watson’s ANY/A stands at 7.25 for the year and 6.04 over his past two outings.

The Texans will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. Along with DeAndre Hopkins (968 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs), Lamar Miller (687 rush yards, three rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Alfred Blue (346 rush yards, one rush TD) have seen a multitude of touches recently.

When these two franchises faced each other last year, Houston earned the win 33-17.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans NFL Pick

SU Winner: Texans, ATS Winner: Texans, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Browns offense has recorded three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Texans have put up four such plays.
  • The Cleveland defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Houston has given up nine such plays.
  • The Cleveland offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Houston has created six such runs.
  • The Browns defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Texans have given up three such runs.
  • The Houston defense has sacked opposing QBs 34 times this season. Cleveland has registered just 25 sacks.
  • Cleveland, as a team, has averaged 4.5 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 4.6 over its last two.
  • Houston has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.5 over its past two.
  • Over its last three matches, Houston is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Cleveland’s previous game was set at 47. The over cashed in the team’s 35-20 victory over Cincinnati.
  • In its last three games, Cleveland is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Houston’s last game was set at 42.5. The over cashed in the 34-17 triumph over Tennessee.