Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Free Pick

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The Cincinnati Reds will face off against their divisional rival St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The matchup will begin at 7:15 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Midwest will televise the game.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Odds

St. Louis (-165) is favored against Cincinnati (+155) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds standing at Reds +1.5 runs (-140) and Cardinals -1.5 runs (+120).

The Reds have gone 57-78 SU this year and are 76-58 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 8.2 units for moneyline bettors, despite having gained 4.9 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are 76-59 SU and 71-63 ATS. The team has gained 5.9 units for moneyline bettors and 7.5 units ATS. St. Louis has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven.

Cardinals games have had an over/under record of 61-67-6 in 2018. The Reds have been a decent over bet with a total record of 69-61-4.

The right-handed Luis Castillo is projected to start for Cincinnati. Castillo is 7-11 with a 5.07 ERA and 131 strikeouts. He’s 0-2 with 20 strikeouts and a 4.64 ERA against St. Louis this year (four starts).

The Cardinals will put the ball in the hands of Daniel Poncedeleon (0-0, 2.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), who has 18 punchouts and 10 walks this season. Poncedeleon is 0-0 with three strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA in one start against Cincinnati this year.

St. Louis’ pitching staff has given up 4.0 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.32, a WHIP of 1.23 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.1 K/9. In 65 divisional games, Cardinals starters have an ERA of 3.37 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.31.

The St. Louis offense is putting up 4.6 runs per contest, including 4.7 per game against divisional foes and 6.8 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .297/.359/.514 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that span.

First baseman Jose Martinez and left fielder Marcell Ozuna have led the Cardinals’ batters this year. Martinez is slashing .314/.375/.477 with 16 home runs, 77 RBIs and 52 runs scored, and Ozuna’s line is .275/.319/.409 with 16 homers, 69 RBIs and 52 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 5.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 7.56 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.30, along with a WHIP of 1.45 and a K/9 of 7.98.

The Reds offense has slashed .259/.336/.407 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this year, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Gennett is hitting .317/.365/.496 with 19 home runs, 80 RBIs and 78 runs scored, while Peraza (.287/.328/.403) is up to nine homers, 45 RBIs, 72 runs and 20 stolen bases.

The Cardinals have lost 1.5 units and are 49-46 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 38 of those games, compared to 52 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has cashed in just two of St. Louis’ last seven games.
  • The Reds have lost eight of their last nine games SU while the Cardinals have won four of their last five.
  • St. Louis has posted 23.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 27.6 over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.