Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Free Pick

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Joey Votto and the Cincinnati Reds will be taking the field versus the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park in a Friday showdown. Fox Sports Ohio will broadcast this NL matchup and the action gets underway at 10:10 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres Odds

San Diego (-135) is the favorite against Cincinnati (+125) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 7.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -105 for the under and -115 for the over. This game currently has a runline of Reds +1.5 (-170) and Padres -1.5 (+150).

The Padres are 11-9 straight up (SU) and 9-10 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 1.9 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 1.1 units ATS. San Diego has covered the spread only twice in its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven. The Reds are 6-12 SU and have gone 9-8 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 7.7 units for moneyline bettors through the early portions of the year and 0.1 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven.

San Diego games have a 9-9-1 over/under record so far in 2019. The Reds have been a decent under bet with a total record of 4-13.

The right-handed Anthony DeSclafani will get the nod for Cincinnati. DeSclafani is 0-1 with a 7.42 ERA and 16 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Padres this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (0-0, 9.00 ERA and three strikeouts over four innings).

The Padres will deploy lefty Matt Strahm (0-2, 4.26 ERA) to the mound. Strahm has eight strikeouts and five walks as well as a 1.74 WHIP. Strahm did not re a start against the Reds in 2018.

Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 3.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 10.02 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.48, along with a K/9 of 9.15.

Reds hitters have slashed .198/.266/.378 on their way to 3.4 runs scored per game this season, including 4.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

Cincinnati’s offense has been powered by first baseman Joey Votto and third baseman Eugenio Suarez. Votto is slashing .230/.319/.426 with 14 hits, four RBIs and nine runs scored. Suarez (.232/.348/.446) is up to 13 hits, three homers, seven RBIs and five runs scored.

For the home team, San Diego’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starters have a 3.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.16 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 10.5 K/9.

The San Diego offense has put up 3.5 runs per contest, including 3.4 per game over its last 10 games and 2.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .226/.281/.409 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Left fielder Wil Myers and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. have paced the Padres’ batters this year. Myers is slashing .317/.368/.603 with 20 hits, five home runs, nine RBIs and nine runs scored, while Tatis Jr.’s line is .294/.355/.574 with five homers, 12 RBIs and nine runs.

The Reds have lost 1.0 units and are 1-0 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in zero of those games, compared to one that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Padres have lost 0.9 units and are 5-9 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in seven of those games, as opposed to six which went under the total.

Reds vs. Padres Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in three of San Diego’s last seven games.
  • San Diego has posted 17.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 17.2 over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit 19 home runs in their last 10 games. The Padres have hit 16 over their last 10.
  • The Reds have a total OPS of .644 this season and an OPS of .865 against left-handed pitchers. The Padres’ OPS stands at .714 overall and .782 against southpaws.