Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

betdsiArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Chicago Cubs are playing host to their NL Central foe Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field. WGN will televise the matchup and the game will get underway at 2:20 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Odds

The Reds have gone 39-50 SU this year and are 52-36 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.6 units for moneyline bettors, despite having gained 6.0 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 50-36 SU and 44-41 ATS. The team has lost 1.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 4.3 units ATS. Chicago has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

Chicago games have had an over/under record of 37-47-1 so far in 2018. The Reds have an over/under record of 43-41-4.

Luis Castillo will get the start for Cincinnati. The right-handed Castillo (5-8, 5.53 ERA) has racked up 91 strikeouts in 94.1 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with nine strikeouts and a 3.38 ERA against Chicago this year (two starts).

The Cubs will put the ball in the left hand of Jon Lester (11-2, 2.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), who has 79 strikeouts and 35 walks this season. Lester is 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in one start against Cincinnati this year.

Chicago’s pitchers have given up 3.9 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The clubs starters have an ERA of 3.92, a WHIP of 1.36 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.8. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.12, a WHIP of 1.28 and a K/9 of 9.0. In 39 games against divisional opponents, Cubs starters have an ERA of 3.13 and the bullpens ERA is 3.62.

Chicago’s offense is putting up 5.1 runs per contest, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .310/.392/.509 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Javier Baez and outfielder Albert Almora Jr. have led the Cubs hitters this year. Baez is hitting .294/.327/.565 with 17 home runs, 63 RBIs, 56 runs and 16 stolen bases, while Almora Jr. is hitting .324 with four homers, 28 RBIs and 46 runs scored.

For the visitors, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.11 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.53 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.01, along with a WHIP of 1.44 and a K-per-9 of 8.18.

Reds hitters have slashed .257/.339/.401 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over the teams last five contests (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and first baseman Joey Votto continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Gennett is slashing .329/.369/.520 with 14 home runs, 58 RBIs and 54 runs scored, while Votto (.296/.428/.443) has produced eight homers, 44 RBIs and 49 runs scored.

The Reds have gained 5.2 units and are 15-9 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 15 of those games, compared to eight that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 7.8 units and are 33-33 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in 28 of those games, as opposed to 37 that’ve cashed the under.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in four of Chicago’s last seven games.
  • The Reds have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Cubs have hit 15 over their last 10.
  • Cincinnati has recorded 25.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 24.0 over its last five.
  • The Cubs have won seven of their last eight games SU.