Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets Free Pick

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The Cincinnati Reds are paying a visit to Flushing to take on the Mets at Citi Field. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York will televise this NL matchup.

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Odds

Cincinnati (+155) is coming into this one as the underdog to New York (-165) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this game at 7.5 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds coming in at Reds +1.5 runs (-140) and Mets -1.5 runs (+120).

The Reds have gone 48-62 SU this year and are 64-47 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle very much this year, losing 3.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having gained 5.7 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 45-63 SU and 48-59 ATS. They’ve lost 20.8 units for moneyline bettors and 17.6 units ATS. New York has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven.

Mets games have had an over/under record of 45-57-5 in 2018. The Reds have been a decent over bet with a total record of 58-49-4.

The right-handed Homer Bailey will get the nod for the visiting Reds. Bailey is 1-8 with a 5.87 ERA and 52 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with three strikeouts and a 13.50 ERA against New York this year.

The Mets are handing the ball to righty Noah Syndergaard (6-2, 2.98 ERA), who’s got 87 punchouts and 16 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.22. Syndergaard hasn’t faced the Reds yet this year and did not record a start against them in 2017.

Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 5.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.47 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.14, along with a K-per-9 of 7.89.

Reds hitters have slashed .257/.339/.403 on their way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.0 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Cincinnati’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza, who’ve collectively blasted 23 home runs. Gennett is slashing .311/.361/.498 with 17 home runs, 67 RBIs and 65 runs scored, while Peraza (.282/.328/.388) has produced six homers, 38 RBIs, 56 runs and 17 stolen bases.

For the home team, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have a 4.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.97 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.4 K/9.

The New York offense has produced 3.9 runs per outing, including 3.6 per game over its last 10 games and 2.6 per game over its last five. The team has hit .200/.247/.350 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario have paced the Mets’ hitters this year. Cabrera is slashing .277/.329/.488 with 18 home runs, 58 RBIs and 48 runs scored, while Rosario’s line is .235/.277/.356 with four homers, 28 RBIs, 40 runs and nine steals.

The Reds have lost 6.3 units and are 46-36 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 41 of those games, compared to 38 that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 13.4 units and are 35-44 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 33 of those games, compared to 41 which went under the total.

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in six of New York’s last seven games.
  • Cincinnati has recorded 20.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.6 over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 10 over their last 10.