Jose Iglesias and the Cincinnati Reds will be taking on their divisional rival Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park in a Saturday showdown. The matchup will get underway at 4:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Fox Sports Ohio to catch the action.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Odds
Las Vegas has Milwaukee (-110) as the favorite over Cincinnati (+100). If you’re thinking this game’s total is going to go under 8.5 runs scored, then Vegas is teeing up even money odds (+100). Playing the over can give you -120 odds. There’s a runline of Reds +1.5 (-210) and Brewers -1.5 (+175) for this matchup.
The Reds have gone 36-38 SU this year and are 41-32 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 0.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having gained 4.3 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 40-36 SU and 36-39 ATS. They’ve lost 0.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.8 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread just once in its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven.
Brewers games have an over/under record of 32-40-3 so far in 2019. The Reds have also been a great under bet with a total record of 24-47-2.
Right-hander Luis Castillo is getting the start for the visiting Reds. Castillo (7-1, 2.26 ERA) has racked up 103 strikeouts in 87.2 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with 11 strikeouts and a 4.66 ERA against Milwaukee this year (two starts).
The Brewers are sending righty Jhoulys Chacin (3-8, 5.60 ERA) to the mound. Chacin has 51 punchouts and 32 walks to his credit as well as a WHIP of 1.52. Chacin is 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 3.38 ERA in one start against Cincinnati this year.
Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.60 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.44, along with a WHIP of 1.23.
The Reds offense has slashed .235/.310/.410 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (5-0 SU).
Cincinnati’s hitters have been paced by shortstop Jose Iglesias and third baseman Eugenio Suarez. Iglesias is slashing .302/.341/.431 with five home runs, 30 RBIs and 31 runs scored. Suarez (.245/.325/.458) is up to 15 homers, 43 RBIs and 36 runs scored.
In the other dugout, Milwaukee’s pitching staff has given up 5.0 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starters have an ERA of 4.98, a WHIP of 1.44 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.8. The bullpen has a 4.36 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 10.1 K/9. In 30 games against divisional foes, Brewers starters have an ERA of 5.80 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.31.
The Milwaukee offense is putting up 5.0 runs per contest, including 5.4 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .203/.315/.367 over its last five games and is 0-5 SU during that stretch.
The Brewers’ hitters have been led by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Yelich is slashing .349/.441/.760 with 29 home runs, 62 RBIs, 61 runs and 17 stolen bases, while Cain’s line is .253/.312/.357 with four homers, 27 RBIs, 45 runs and 10 stolen bases.
The Reds have lost 0.5 units and are 29-26 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 18 of those games, compared to 35 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 3.5 units and are 25-27 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 25 of those games, compared to 25 that went under.
Reds at Brewers Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has cashed in just one of Cincinnati’s last seven outings.
- The Brewers have dropped seven of their last eight games SU.
- Milwaukee has recorded 20.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 16.0 over its last five.
- The Reds have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers have hit 18 over their last 10.
- The Reds have a total OPS of .720 this season and an OPS of .702 against right-handed pitchers. The Brewers’ OPS sits at .784 overall and .783 against righties.
