The Chicago Cubs will square off against the New York Mets at Citi Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET and this NL matchup will be shown on WLS and WPIX.
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets Odds
Vegas is listing Chicago (-145) as the favorite over New York (+135). Gamblers are able to bet on the games total with odds listed at -115 for over 7.5 runs and -105 for under 7.5. Runline odds sit at +100 for taking the Cubs -1.5 runs and -120 for the Mets +1.5 runs.
The Mets are 27-29 SU and 26-28 ATS. They’ve lost 4.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.7 units against the spread (ATS). New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 32-23 SU and have gone 26-28 ATS. In total, the teams lost 3.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.7 units ATS. Chicago has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.
Mets games have had an over/under record of 24-29-1 so far in 2018. Chicago has been a decent under bet with a total record of 23-30-1.
Jon Lester will get the nod for the visiting Cubs. The southpaw Lester is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA and 54 strikeouts. This will be his first start against New York this year. He did make two starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 2-0 record with a 2.08 ERA and 15 strikeouts.
The Mets are handing the ball to lefty Steven Matz (2-3, 3.55 ERA), who has 41 strikeouts and 21 walks, as well as a 1.27 WHIP. Matz did not record a start against the Cubs in 2017.
Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 3.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.67 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 8.22 K/9. The bullpen has managed an excellent ERA of just 2.61, along with a K/9 of 9.17.
Cubs hitters have slashed .267/.350/.437 on their way to 5.3 runs scored per game this year, including 5.3 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
Chicago’s offense has been led by third baseman Kris Bryant and second baseman Javier Baez, who’ve collectively belted 22 home runs. Bryant is hitting .289/.400/.512 with eight home runs, 28 RBIs and 32 runs scored, while Baez (.271/.303/.570) is up to 14 homers, 45 RBIs, 34 runs and seven stolen bases.
Bryant performed well against lefties on the road last season, maintaining a slash line of .348/.488/.561 across 84 such plate appearances (his total season line was .295/.409/.537).
In the home-team dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.94 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.66 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 9.0 K/9.
The New York hitters have produced 4.1 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over their last five. The teams hit .198/.288/.368 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.
The Mets batters have been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario. Cabrera is hitting .294/.336/.509 with 10 home runs, 34 RBIs and 30 runs scored, and Rosario’s line sits at .257/.286/.377 with three homers, 18 RBIs and 23 runs.
The Cubs have gained 1.6 units and are 7-6 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to seven that’ve gone under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 2.2 units and are 8-7 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in six of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – UNDER
Betting Notes
- The Cubs have won six of their last seven games SU while the Mets have lost four of their last five SU.
- Chicago has recorded 27.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 32.8 over its last five.
- The Cubs have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.
