Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick

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Javier Baez and the Chicago Cubs will be taking the field against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field in a Saturday night game. This NL matchup gets going at 8:10 p.m. ET and you can catch it on both WLS and FSAZ.

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Sportsbooks have Arizona (+100) as the underdog to Chicago (-110). You can play matchup’s total with current odds posted at -115 for over 9 runs and -105 for under 9. There’s a runline of Cubs -1.5 (+135) and Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) for this matchup.

The Diamondbacks are 16-11 straight up (SU) and 18-8 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 6.8 units for moneyline bettors and 9.2 units ATS. The Cubs are 12-12 SU and have gone 12-11 against the spread. In total, the team’s lost 1.7 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going, but have gained 0.2 units ATS.

Neither side has been an obvious over/under play this season. Diamondbacks games have an over/under record of 13-11-2 so far in 2019. The Cubs have an over/under record of 12-10-1.

Yu Darvish is getting the start for Chicago. The right-handed Darvish is 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA and 25 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with seven strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA against Arizona this year.

The Diamondbacks are putting the ball in the right hand of Zack Godley (1-1, 6.67 ERA), who has 22 strikeouts and 14 walks as well as a 1.59 WHIP. Godley hasn’t faced the Cubs yet this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (0-0, 6.35 ERA and six strikeouts across 5.2 innings).

Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.93 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.05 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.84, along with a K/9 of 10.01.

The Cubs offense has slashed .256/.351/.436 on its way to 5.3 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Chicago’s hitters have been led by shortstop Javier Baez and right fielder Jason Heyward, who’ve collectively blasted 14 home runs. Baez is hitting .327/.358/.673 with nine home runs, 22 RBIs and 21 runs scored, while Heyward (.328/.447/.567) has produced five homers, 14 RBIs and 15 runs scored.

For the home team, Arizona’s pitchers have given up 4.4 runs per game overall this year. The club’s starters have a 4.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.12 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.6 K/9.

The Arizona offense has produced 5.5 runs per contest, including 5.3 per game over its last 10 games and 7.6 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .315/.367/.538 over its last five matchups and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.

Outfielders David Peralta and Adam Jones have paced the Diamondbacks’ batters so far. Peralta is hitting .333/.368/.550 with three home runs, 18 RBIs and 17 runs scored, and Jones has put up a line of .317/.378/.554 with five homers, 18 RBIs and 13 runs.

The Cubs have lost 2.7 units and are 10-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 10 of those games, compared to eight that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have netted 2.9 units and are 12-5 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in seven of those games, compared to 10 that’ve gone under.

Cubs at Diamondbacks Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Diamondbacks, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in only two of Arizona’s last seven games.
  • Chicago has recorded 18.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 18.4 over its last five.
  • The Cubs have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.
  • The Cubs have an OPS of .788 this season and an OPS of .794 against right-handed pitchers. The Diamondbacks’ OPS sits at .812 overall and .786 against righties.