Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat Free Prediction 12/08/19

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A nine-game home winning streak is on the line for the Miami Heat (16-6), who will be 7-point favorites when they take on the Chicago Bulls (8-15) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 212 points and it can be seen on NBC Sports Chicago at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 8, 2019.

Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

Neither team was able to cover in their last contest. The Heat (9.5-point favorites) beat the Washington Wizards, 112-103, while the Bulls (4.5-point favorites) fell to the Golden State Warriors, 100-98. The Miami game finished 12.5 points under the projected point total of 227.5, while the Chicago game finished 18 points under the projected point total of 216.

Miami dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.209 (matching their season average) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.8 (above their season average of 22.2). Washington had marks of 0.143 and 18.8, respectively, for those same stats. Chicago, on the other hand, forced Golden State into a turnover percentage of 19.1 (above their season average of 12.5). Jimmy Butler led the way for Miami with 28 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists to record his first triple-double of the year. Chicago, meanwhile, rallied around Zach LaVine, who finished with 22 points, six rebounds and six assists.

In their first matchup this season, Bam Adebayo led the Heat to a 116-108 victory. He notched a double-double with 16 points and 14 rebounds. The two teams combined to put up 224 points, which was over the projected point total of 217, and Miami covered as a 4.5-point favorite. Miami made good use of their 28 trips to the charity stripe, making 24 of them (85.7 percent). Chicago, meanwhile, was 16-20 (80.0 percent).

Vegas is known to set the total high when the Bulls are involved, as 56.5 percent of their games have gone under the O/U total. Chicago heads into the contest with records of 8-15 straight up (SU) and 10-13 against the spread (ATS).

Games featuring the Heat have no tendency in regards to the O/U total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Further, Miami owns records of 16-6 SU and 13-7-2 ATS.

The Bulls’ LaVine has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 27 points,4.2 assists,1.4 steals per game. Meanwhile, Butler has averaged 23 points,7.0 rebounds,6.2 assists,1.4 steals during that same time frame for the Heat.

This has potential to be an error-filled game for the offense of Miami. Miami ranks 30th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 16.4 percent), while the disruptive defense of Chicago forces the most turnovers in the NBA (17.2 percent). Additionally, put-back points figure to be rare for the Bulls. They rank 21st in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage at 22.2 percent, while the Heat are fifth-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 79.4 percent).

Bulls at Heat Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Bulls average 14.6 second chance points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Heat rank 12th in second chance points allowed per game (12.8).
  • Chicago ranks first in points off turnovers per game (21.7) while Miami ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (20.2).
  • The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while the Bulls rank 26th (48.2).
  • Chicago ranks 10th in three pointers attempted per game (35.5) while Miami ranks 27th in three pointers allowed per game (37.0).
  • Miami ranks 10th in assists per game (25.1) while Chicago ranks 18th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
  • The Bulls rank first in steals per game (9.6) while the Heat rank 26th in steals allowed per game (8.6).
  • The Bulls rank eighth in fast break points per game (14.4) while the Heat rank 25th (10.8).
  • Miami ranks third in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while Chicago ranks 28th (6.7).
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Chicago is 3-0 and Miami is 4-1.
  • When scoring more than 100 points, the Heat are 16-2 and the Bulls are 8-8.
  • Miami is 7-1-1 ATS at home, while Chicago is 5-6 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 6 of the Bulls’ 11 road games, while 5 of the Heat’s 9 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Bulls are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Chicago has 4 unders and 1 over, while Miami has 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
  • During their last five games, the Bulls have scored an average of 102.0 points per game (4.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.2 points per game (6.0 below their season average).
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.2, down from 5.5 for the season.