A six-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the Miami Heat (11-4), who will be 10.5-point favorites when they challenge the Charlotte Hornets (6-11) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 215 points and it will air on Fox Sports Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, November 25, 2019.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds
Both teams were beaten in their last contest. The Heat (5.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Philadelphia 76ers, 113-86, while the Hornets (2-point underdogs) fell to the Chicago Bulls, 116-115. The Miami game went 11.5 points under the projected point total of 210.5, while the Charlotte game finished 12.5 points over the projected point total of 218.5.
Charlotte had a free throw rate of 0.188 (above their season average of 0.181) while Miami did a great job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (20-27; 74.1 percent). Tyler Herro played a pivotal role for Miami with 20 points. Bismack Biyombo, meanwhile had a solid performance for Charlotte, recording 11 points and 12 rebounds.
This series was highly contested last year. Each won two of the four games played against each other last season. In the most recent matchup, the Heat won 93-75. The Heat’s 31.3 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Hornets, who had a mark of 21.6. This is the first time these teams will clash this year.
Games involving the Hornets have a slight tendency to go over the O/U total (52.9 percent). Charlotte holds records of 6-11 straight up (SU) and 9-8 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Charlotte, a little over half of Heat games have finished under the total. Moreover, Miami is 11-4 SU and 10-3-2 ATS.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, Miami should have a noteworthy advantage. The sharp-shooting Heat offense ranks first in the league in that metric at 0.554, while the suspect Charlotte defense is ranked 29th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.558). Ball security could be troublesome for the Hornets. They rank 27th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 16.0 percent), while the Heat force the second-most turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 16.9 percent).
Hornets vs. Heat Odds Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank 22nd in second chance points per game (12.2) while the Hornets rank 26th (11.8).
- Miami ranks second in steals per game (9.5) while Charlotte ranks 29th in steals allowed per game (9.4).
- The Heat rank 12th in points allowed in the paint per game (46.0) while the Hornets rank last (53.2).
- Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (40.8) while Charlotte ranks 20th (45.9).
- Miami ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Charlotte ranks 10th (4.5).
- The Heat rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (19.5) while the Hornets rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (20.0).
- The Hornets average 35.1 three pointers per game, which ranks 10th in the league. The Heat rank 27th in three pointers allowed per game (36.3).
- Miami ranks eighth in assists per game (25.7) while Charlotte ranks 28th in assists allowed per game (27.4).
- In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Charlotte is 1-0 and Miami is 4-1.
- When scoring more than 100 points, the Hornets are 5-6 and the Heat are 11-1.
- Charlotte is 5-4 ATS on the road, while Miami is 5-0-1 ATS at home.
- The Hornets have 5 overs and 4 unders in 9 road games.
- The Heat have 3 overs and 3 unders in 6 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Hornets are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Charlotte has 3 overs and 2 unders.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 108.6 points per game (2.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.4 points per game (2.2 below their season average).
- The Hornets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 10.6, up from 7.4 for the season.
