Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins – Week 13 Free Pick

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The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are set to square off on the grass at Hard Rock Stadium. This early afternoon game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS.

Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Buffalo is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 5 points in this AFC game. The Bills are also receiving +160 moneyline odds while the Dolphins are -180. There might be multiple good in-game betting scenarios for this contest, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 40 points.

Sharp bettors are hammering the Bills. The line opened at -6 and the game’s total has not moved after being initially set at 40.

The Bills are 5-6 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.2 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-6.

The Dolphins have gained 0.6 units this season. The team is 6-5 ATS and also has an O/U record of 5-6.

The Bills are 4-7 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against AFC East opponents. The Dolphins are 5-6 SU overall and 2-1 SU against divisional foes.

Buffalo enters this contest on a zero-game winless skid while Miami has won zero in a row. The Bills got their second W in as many tries after a 24-21 victory over Jacksonville in Week 12. The passing attack was messy as Josh Allen completed just eight-of-19 passes for 160 yards and one touchdown. LeSean McCoy (46 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and the signal-caller Allen (99 yards on 13 carries, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack. Jason Croom (two receptions, 16 yards) and Isaiah McKenzie (two catches, 11 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

In Week 12, Indianapolis got the win against this Miami team by a score of 27-24. The Dolphins defensive unit allowed the Colts to pass for 347 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 118 yards. T.Y. Hilton put up a solid outing in the win for Indianapolis, posting 125 yards on seven catches. For Miami, Ryan Tannehill completed 17-of-25 passes for 204 yards and two touchdowns. Frank Gore (67 yards on 14 rush attempts) mounted the running game as Drake (five receptions, 64 yards, one TD) and DeVante Parker (three catches, 10 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.

Buffalo has run the ball on 48.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Miami has an overall rush percentage of 44.1 percent. The Bills have rushed for 114.1 yards per game (including 129.0 per game versus East opponents) and have nine scores on the ground this year. The Dolphins are totaling 106.5 rush yards per game (85.0 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.

The Bills offense has averaged 181.8 yards through the air overall (280.0 per game against conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Dolphins have put up 227.5 pass yards per contest (147 against AFC foes) and have 18 total pass scores.

Defensively, Buffalo appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 111.3 rush yards and 208.5 pass yards per game. The Miami defense has given up 269.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 139.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.15 to opponents, while the Dolphins have allowed a 6.58 ANY/A.

Offensively, Barkley is up to 232 passing yards this year, and has completed 60 percent of his 25 attempts with two passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. Barkley has a sparkling 10.15 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Look for a balanced attack offensively from Buffalo in this one. Robert Foster (124 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), LeSean McCoy (313 rush yards) and Josh Allen (254 rush yards, four rush TDs, 0 receiving yards) have each played big roles recently.

Brock Osweiler has completed 113-of-178 passes for 1,247 yards, six TDs and four INTs for Miami. His ANY/A sits at 5.48 for the season and 2.74 over his last two games.

We’re looking for the Dolphins to control the game’s pace by pounding the defense with their running backs. Leonte Carroo (74 receiving yards, one TD this season) has chipped in lately, but Frank Gore (505 rush yards, one receiving TD) and Kenyan Drake (381 rush yards, four rush TDs, 287 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) have really been key factors in the Miami offense.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Dolphins, ATS Winner: Dolphins, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • Miami has lost seven fumbles this season while Buffalo has lost six.
  • The Buffalo defensive unit has 28 sacks on the year while Miami has just 18.
  • As a team, Buffalo has produced 4.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.7 over its last two.
  • Miami has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.1 over its past two.
  • Over its last three games, Miami is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Buffalo’s last game was set at 36.5. The over cashed in the team’s 24-21 victory over Jacksonville.
  • Over its last three matches, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The O/U for Miami’s last matchup was set at 52.5. The under cashed in the team’s 27-24 loss to Indianapolis.
  • Miami has lost five of its last six games SU, with a seven-point triumph over New York on November 4th accounting for its only win over that span.