The Brooklyn Nets (32-32) will travel to AmericanAirlines Arena to clash with the Miami Heat (27-34). The Heat opened as 4-point favorites. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 220.5 points and it can be seen on YES Network at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 2, 2019.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds
Both teams were beaten in their last outing. The Heat (9-point underdogs) were defeated by the Houston Rockets, 121-118, while the Nets (5-point favorites) fell to the Charlotte Hornets, 123-112. The Miami game went 20.5 points over the projected point total of 218.5, while the Brooklyn game went 3 points under the projected point total of 238.
Brooklyn did an excellent job of converting from the free throw line (14-18; 77.8 percent) while Miami had a better turnover percentage (13.3 vs. 14.4). Goran Dragic played well for Miami with 21 points, five rebounds and five assists. Brooklyn rallied around D’Angelo Russell, who recorded 22 points and nine assists.
The Nets had the upper hand in the most recent game, a 104-92 victory, to even the season series at one. Hassan Whiteside recorded a double-double in the loss, with 21 points and 23 rebounds. Getting to the free throw line was one of Brooklyn’s largest advantages. They made 26 trips to the line, while Miami went 20 times. Brooklyn covered as a 3-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 196 points, which was well under the projected point total of 215.5.
Of the Nets’ 63 games that accepted bets, 33 have finished over the total. Brooklyn holds records of 32-32 straight up (SU) and 35-28 against the spread (ATS).
Much like Brooklyn, just over half of Heat games have finished over the total. Moreover, Miami is 27-34 SU and 31-29-1 ATS.
The offensive glass should be a major advantage for Miami in this matchup. The Heat are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking fifth in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.4 percent. Meanwhile, Brooklyn ranks 21st in the league at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 76.5 percent.
Nets at Heat Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Nets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank second in assists allowed per game (22.8) while the Nets rank seventh (23.4).
- Miami ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.8) while Brooklyn ranks 28th (52.0).
- The Heat rank ninth in rebounds per game (46.1) while the Nets rank 21st in rebounds allowed per game (45.5).
- Brooklyn ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (29.3) while Miami ranks 14th (31.6).
- Brooklyn ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (11.1) while Miami ranks 11th (13.0).
- The Heat rank fifth in second chance points per game (14.4) while the Nets rank 26th in second chance points allowed per game (14.4).
- The Heat rank 17th in steals per game (7.5) while the Nets rank 27th (6.5).
- Brooklyn averages 15.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 22nd in the NBA. Miami ranks 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.2).
- Miami ranks eighth in blocks per game (5.5) while Brooklyn ranks 27th (4.2).
- In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Brooklyn is 8-1 and Miami is 15-3.
- The Heat are 25-18 when they score above 100 points, while the Nets are 31-23.
- Miami is 11-18-1 ATS at home, while Brooklyn is 19-11 ATS on the road.
- In 30 road games, the Nets have 15 overs, 14 unders and 1 push.
- In 30 home games, the Heat have 17 overs and 13 unders.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Brooklyn and Miami are both 3-2 ATS.
- The Nets have 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games, while the Heat have 4 overs and 1 under
- During their last five games, the Nets have scored an average of 109.0 points per game (3.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 112.2 points per game (0.5 below their season average).
- The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.4, up from 1.1 for the season.
