Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Free Pick

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Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox are preparing to take on their divisional rival New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in a Saturday showdown. The action can be viewed across the country on Fox and the opening pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Odds

The Red Sox have gone 29-28 SU this year and are 23-33 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 12.6 units for moneyline gamblers and 12.7 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Yankees, on the other hand, are 37-19 SU and 31-24 ATS. The team’s gained 6.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 7.8 units ATS. New York has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone over in three of those seven.

Yankees games have an over/under record of 29-23-3 so far in 2019. Boston has also been a decent over bet with a total record of 32-22-2.

Right-hander Rick Porcello is projected to start for the visiting Red Sox. Porcello is 4-4 with a 4.41 ERA and 51 strikeouts. He has yet to face New York this year, but he made four starts against the team in 2018, putting together a 2-0 record with a 2.31 ERA and 20 strikeouts.

The Yankees will put the ball in the right hand of Domingo German (9-1, 3.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), who’s got 63 strikeouts and 16 walks. German only made one start against the Red Sox in 2018 (0-0, 2.08 ERA and six strikeouts across 4.1 innings).

Boston’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starters own a 4.68 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.43 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.08, along with a WHIP of 1.27.

Red Sox hitters have slashed .259/.342/.441 on their way to 5.3 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Third baseman Rafael Devers and outfielder Mookie Betts have paced Boston’s offense. Devers is hitting .324/.382/.514 with eight home runs, 32 RBIs, 40 runs and seven steals. Betts (.287/.398/.477) is up to nine homers, 27 RBIs, 45 runs and six stolen bases.

For the home team, New York’s pitchers have given up 4.0 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.76, a WHIP of 1.20 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.9. The bullpen has a 3.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. In 21 games against AL East foes, Yankees starters have an ERA of 3.50 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.81.

New York’s offense is putting up 5.4 runs per outing, including 6.4 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .260/.324/.479 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Second baseman DJ LeMahieu and shortstop Gleyber Torres have led the Yankees’ offense this year. LeMahieu is hitting .317/.368/.462 with six home runs, 32 RBIs and 36 runs scored, while Torres has put up a line of .287/.329/.545 with 14 homers, 31 RBIs and 33 runs.

The Red Sox have lost 4.6 units and are 19-22 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 24 of those games, as opposed to 16 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Yankees have netted 9.4 units and are 25-18 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 24 of those games, compared to 17 that went under the total.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Yankees, ATS Winner – Red Sox, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in three of New York’s last seven games.
  • Boston has posted 24.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 25.8 over its last five.
  • The Red Sox have hit 19 home runs in their last 10 games. The Yankees have hit 21 over their last 10.
  • The Red Sox have a team OPS of .783 this season and an OPS of .795 against right-handed pitchers. The Yankees’ OPS sits at .788 overall and .813 versus righties.