Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick

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The Boston Red Sox will be taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks in a Sunday matinee. The game gets underway 4:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Arizona is in line to showcase this interleague matchup.

Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

The Red Sox have gone only 2-8 SU this year and are 1-8 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 8.3 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going and 7.6 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread just once over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are 5-4 SU and 5-3 ATS. The team’s gained 1.3 units for moneyline bettors and 0.7 units ATS.

Arizona games have a 7-1 over/under record so far in 2019. Boston has an over/under record of 7-2.

Right-hander Hector Velazquez (0-0, 4.76 ERA) will get the ball for Boston. Velazquez started eight games last year while finishing the season 7-2 overall with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP.

The D-backs are going with righty Merrill Kelly (1-0, 4.50 ERA) as their starter. Kelly also did not record any MLB pitching stats last season.

As a unit, Arizona’s pitchers have allowed 7.3 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starters have an ERA of 6.41, a WHIP of 1.47 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.4. The bullpen has a 7.53 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and 6.0 K/9.

The Arizona hitters are putting up 6.8 runs per outing, including 7.8 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .346/.391/.622 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Diamondbacks’ batters have been led by outfielders David Peralta and Adam Jones. Peralta is slashing .429/.429/.667 with 18 hits, four RBIs and eight runs scored, while the line for Jones stands at .400/.415/.800 with 16 hits, six RBIs and six runs.

In the other dugout, Boston’s pitchers have allowed 7.2 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 9.13 ERA, 1.96 WHIP and 7.58 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.21, along with a K/9 of 10.40.

The Red Sox offense has slashed .245/.316/.389 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this season, including over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Boston’s offense has been fueled by outfielders J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. Martinez is slashing .359/.419/.590 with 14 hits, eight RBIs and five runs scored. Betts is hitting .262/.333/.476 with 11 hits, two homers, six RBIs and nine runs scored.

The Red Sox have lost 4.8 units and are 1-4 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in three of those games, compared to two that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have netted 0.7 units and are 3-1 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in four of those games, compared to zero which went under the total.

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Red Sox, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Red Sox and Diamondbacks did not face each other last season.
  • The Red Sox have lost seven of their last eight games SU while the Diamondbacks have won four of their last five SU.
  • The Red Sox have a total OPS of .705 this season and an OPS of .641 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Diamondbacks’ OPS stands at .908 overall and their lefty-righty split is nearly identical.