Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction 11/22/19

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The Denver Nuggets (10-3) will be 4.5-point favorites at home in the Pepsi Center when they take on the Boston Celtics (11-3). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 206 points and action gets underway at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, November 22, 2019.

Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets ATS Odds

In their last matchup, the Nuggets (1.5-point favorites) covered in a 105-95 win over the Houston Rockets. The Celtics were defeated by the Los Angeles Clippers, 107-104, but did cover as 7.5-point underdogs. The Denver game went 21.5 points under the projected point total of 221.5, while the Boston game finished 7.5 points under the projected point total of 218.5.

Denver played a nearly flawless game. They had a turnover percentage of 12.2 (worse than their season average of 11.1) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 30.6 (above their season average of 22.8). Houston was 18.7 and 21.4, respectively, for those same stats. Boston, meanwhile, forced Los Angeles into a turnover percentage of 18.7 (above their season average of 13.7). Denver’s Nikola Jokic had a good game, recording 27 points and 12 rebounds. Boston, meanwhile, received a boost from Jayson Tatum, who put up 30 points and six rebounds.

The Nuggets dominated this series last year, taking both contests. In the last matchup, Denver won 114-105. The Nuggets’ 30.6 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Celtics, who had a rate of 23.1. This is the first time these teams will battle this year.

Of the Celtics’ 14 games, nine have finished under the total. Boston holds records of 11-3 straight up (SU) and 8-5-1 against the spread (ATS).

Nuggets games also have typically finished under the total (76.9 percent). Denver is 10-3 SU, but they are just 5-6-2 ATS.

The Celtics’ Marcus Smart has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 14 points,5.6 assists per game. Meanwhile, Paul Millsap has averaged 18 points,7.2 rebounds,1.4 steals during that same time frame for the Nuggets.

The offense of Denver (19th in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 104.6) will battle against the stingy defense of Boston (seventh in the league with a defensive efficiency of 101.7). The Celtics figure to have the advantage on that end of the court.

Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Free Pick

Free Prediction: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Celtics rank first in steals allowed per game (5.7) while the Nuggets rank fifth (6.7).
  • Denver averages 46.5 rebounds per game, which ranks 11th in the league. Boston ranks 28th in rebounds allowed per game (49.1).
  • The Nuggets average 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks 14th in the league. The Celtics rank 23rd in blocks allowed per game (5.9).
  • Boston averages 35.7 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Denver ranks 16th in three pointers allowed per game (33.7).
  • Boston ranks 14th in fast break points per game (13.6) while Denver ranks 21st in fast break points allowed per game (14.1).
  • The Celtics rank fifth in assists allowed per game (22.0) while the Nuggets rank 17th (24.2).
  • The Celtics rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.1) while the Nuggets rank 10th (45.8).
  • Boston leads the NBA with 13.4 points off turnovers allowed per game while Denver is second with 13.4 points off turnovers allowed per game.
  • Denver ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (10.5) while Boston ranks 12th (12.8).
  • Boston is 3-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Denver is 7-0.
  • In games where they score above 100 points, the Nuggets are 9-3 and the Celtics are 10-1.
  • Denver is 2-4-1 ATS at home, while Boston is 5-3-1 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 6 of the Nuggets’ 7 home games, while 7 of the Celtics’ 9 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Nuggets are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Celtics are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Denver has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Boston has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.6, up from 4.5 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 109.4 points per game (2.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.0 points per game (0.6 above their season average).