The Fresno State Bulldogs (12-5, 2-2 MWC) welcome the Boise State Broncos (13-3, 3-1 MWC) in a matchup that pits outstanding offense against stifling defense. Fresno State opened as a 3-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 141 points. Action gets underway at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 9, 2018, and it can be seen on ESPNU.
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs ATS Preview
In the Broncos last game, they lost a tough one against the Wyoming Cowboys, 79-78. Boise State’s Chandler Hutchison had a good game, leading the team in scoring with 27 points on 6-for-19 shooting. Wyoming had a free throw rate of 0.339 (above their season average of 0.301). Boise State, meanwhile, held the Cowboys to an offensive rebounding percentage of 5.1 (below their season average of 20.0).
The Bulldogs will look to maintain momentum after narrowly defeating the Colorado State Rams in their last contest, 82-79. With 22 points on 6-for-14 shooting, Deshon Taylor was the games high scorer. Fresno State played a flawless game. They had a solid free throw rate of 0.302 (above their season average of 0.274) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.8 (below their season average of 33.2). For those same stats, Colorado State was 0.194 and 30.2, respectively.
This showdown pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses as Fresno State ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and Boise State is 14th in defensive efficiency.
Of Boise State’s 15 games with betting action, eight have finished over the O/U total, while 9 of Fresno State’s 13 games have finished over the O/U total. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Broncos have a significant advantage. They are 13-3 SU and 9-6 ATS, while the Bulldogs are 12-5 SU and 5-8 ATS.
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Broncos, it’s been Hutchison, who has averaged 23.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.6 steals, while the Bulldogs have gotten solid contributions from Taylor (19.0 points, 3.4 assists and 2.2 steals).
This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Bulldogs won both contests played against each other last season. In the last matchup, Fresno State won 74-67. The Bulldogs turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Broncos. Fresno State had a rate of 12.1, while Boise State posted a mark of 20.9.
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs ATS Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Boise State, ATS Winner – Boise State, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Bulldogs allow the 42nd-fewest assists per game (11.5) while the Broncos rank 56th (11.9).
- On the road, Boise State is 3-4 ATS with 4 overs and 3 unders.
- At home, Fresno State is 2-4 ATS with 3 overs and 3 unders.
- Boise State ranks 34th in three pointers attempted per game (26.3) while Fresno State ranks 216th (18.4).
- The Broncos rank 16th in rebounds per game (40.9) while the Bulldogs rank 145th (35.4).
- Fresno State ranks 20th in steals allowed per game (5.0) while Boise State ranks 65th (5.9).
Betting Trends:
- Fresno State is 0-4 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Boise State is 3-2 ATS with 5 overs.
- The Bulldogs average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.0, down from 11.4 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Broncos have scored an average of 81.4 points per game (1.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 74.4 points per game (8.2 above their season average).
