The Baylor Bears (+7) are heading neutral to take on their Big 12 foe Texas Tech Red Raiders at AT&T Stadium. This daytime game is scheduled to get underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and FS1 has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Baylor Bears
Baylor is a live dog here and is currently getting 7 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to lay down $300 to win $100 back on the Red Raiders (-300). The Bears are getting +220 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 65 points, and some decent live betting scenarios may present themselves during this game.
The Bears are 5-6 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 0.5 units so far. The team’s posted an Over-Under mark of 5-5.
The Red Raiders are up 1.9 units this season. The team is 6-5 ATS and owns an O/U record of 8-3.
The Bears are 5-6 straight up (SU), including 3-5 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Red Raiders are 5-6 SU overall and are also 3-5 SU in conference play.
The Bears lost to TCU 16-9 in a game where their defense allowed the Horned Frogs to rush for 160 yards on 42 attempts, along with one rushing TD. On the offense, Charlie Brewer completed just 14 passes on 29 attempts for 163 yards and one interception. Brewer (54 yards on 18 rush attempts, one TD) also led the ground attack and was complemented by John Lovett (55 yards on 11 carries). Jalen Hurd (four receptions, 68 yards) and Trestan Ebner (three catches, 26 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
A week ago, Kansas State knocked off this Texas Tech crew by a score of 21-6. Jett Duffey completed 19-of-27 passes for 150 yards and one interception. Da’Leon Ward (34 yards on 10 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Duffey (-8 yards on 10 carries) handled the running attack while T.J. Vasher (six receptions, 69 yards) and Antoine Wesley (six catches, 28 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Baylor has run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas Tech has an overall rush percentage of 45.0 percent. The Bears have produced 158.5 rush yards/game (including 153.5 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 19 scores on the ground this year. The Red Raiders are averaging 135.5 rush yards per game (120.5 in conference) and have 25 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Red Raiders ought to own the edge when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has given up just 23 sacks while the D-line has logged 25 sacks. The Bears offensive line has allowed 34 sacks and their defense has logged only 21 sacks.
The Bears offense has logged 279.8 yards per contest in the air overall (261.8 per game against conference opposition) and has 17 passing TDs so far. The Red Raiders have put up a ridiculous 362.2 pass yards per contest (330 in the Big 12) and have 26 total pass scores.
Defensively, Baylor appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 181.6 yards and pass for 237.6 yards per game. The Texas Tech defense has allowed 286.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 159.7 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Bears have given up an ANY/A of 7.43 to opposing QBs, while the Red Raiders are allowing an ANY/A of 7.04.
Passing-wise, Brewer is up to 2,039 yards this season. He’s completed 59 percent of his 290 attempts with 12 scores through the air and seven interceptions. He has a 5.72 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.77 over the last two games.
We expect the Baylor offense to mix it up in this one. Jalen Hurd (163 rushing yards, three rush TDs, 824 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns on the year), Charlie Brewer (126 rush yards, five rush TDs, 36 receiving yards) and Trestan Ebner (255 rush yards, 192 receiving yards) have each played big roles lately.
Jett Duffey has completed 67-of-107 passes for 777 yards, four TDs and five INTs for Texas Tech. His ANY/A sits at 5.01 for the year and 6.59 across his past two outings.
Antoine Wesley (1,204 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns on the year), T.J. Vasher (539 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Da’Leon Ward (225 rush yards, three rush TDs, 148 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have combined to account for 507 total yards and four touchdowns over the last two games.
These two squads met last year with the final outcome being a 38-24 victory for Texas Tech.
Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Baylor, ATS Winner: Baylor, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Texas Tech offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Baylor has lost six.
- The Texas Tech defense has notched 25 sacks on the year while Baylor has 21.
- Baylor, as a team, has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.0 over its last two.
- Texas Tech has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.9 over its past two.
- Over its last three games, Texas Tech is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Baylor’s last game was set at 49. The under cashed in the team’s 16-9 defeat to TCU.
- In its last three games, Baylor is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Texas Tech’s previous match going into it was 55.5. The under cashed in that 21-6 loss to Kansas State.
- Baylor has lost five of its last six games SU, with a four-point win over Oklahoma State on November 3rd representing the only victory over that span.