Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies ATS Prediction

Daniel GimenezBasketball, NBA

The league’s top scoring defense will be a 6.5-point favorite at home in FedExForum, when the Memphis Grizzlies (8-5) clash with the Sacramento Kings (8-6). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 213.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Southeast at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 16, 2018.

Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last contest. The Grizzlies (9.5-point underdogs) defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 116-113, while the Kings (2.5-point underdog) beat the San Antonio Spurs 104-99. The Memphis game finished 16 points over the projected point total of 213, while the Sacramento game finished 17 points under the projected point total of 220.

The Kings forced 15 turnovers and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.564 (above their season average of 0.536). Meanwhile, Memphis’ turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Milwaukee. The Grizzlies had a rate of 11.4 (better than their season average of 12.0), while the Bucks posted a mark of 14.7. Marc Gasol put together a good outing for Memphis with 29 points and five rebounds. Sacramento, meanwhile, was lifted by Willie Cauley-Stein, who contributed 13 points and 13 rebounds.

In their first matchup this season, Nemanja Bjelica led the Kings to a 97-92 victory. He notched a double-double with 11 points and 11 rebounds. Sacramento covered as a 3-point underdog and the two teams combined to put up 189 points, which was well under the projected point total of 220.5. One of Sacramento’s biggest advantages was getting to the free throw line. They had 33 free throw attempts, while Memphis had just 13.

Vegas is highly precise when setting the O/U total of Kings games, with an even split between overs and unders. Sacramento holds records of 8-6 straight up (SU) and 9-5 against the spread (ATS).

Games featuring the Grizzlies have typically finished under the O/U total (61.5 percent). Further, Memphis owns records of 8-5 SU and 8-5 ATS.

The aggressive Memphis offense looks poised to dominate from the free throw line. The Grizzlies currently rank fifth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.237, while Sacramento ranks 15th in FTA rate allowed (0.208). This game should be a showdown of conflicting tempos. The up-tempo Kings rank fourth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Grizzlies rank 29th.

Kings vs. Grizzlies Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Kings, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Kings average 24.6 assists per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Grizzlies rank 15th in assists allowed per game (23.6).
  • Memphis ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.3) while Sacramento ranks 26th (52.3).
  • The Grizzlies rank 11th in three pointers allowed per game (30.5) while the Kings rank 27th (36.1).
  • Memphis ranks ninth in second chance points allowed per game (11.8) while Sacramento ranks 25th (15.7).
  • Memphis averages 22.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the league. Sacramento ranks 14th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.9).
  • The Kings average 22.6 fast break points per game, which ranks first in the league. The Grizzlies rank 23rd in fast break points allowed per game (15.3).
  • The Grizzlies rank 13th in rebounds allowed per game (44.6) while the Kings rank 29th (49.5).
  • Memphis ranks second in steals per game (9.7) while Sacramento ranks 18th in steals allowed per game (8.2).
  • Sacramento is 3-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Memphis is 4-2.
  • The Kings are 7-5 when they reach 100 points, while the Grizzlies are 6-2.
  • Memphis is 5-1 ATS at home, while Sacramento is 4-3 ATS on the road.
  • Of the Kings’ 7 road games, they have 6 overs and 1 under.
  • Of the Grizzlies’ 6 home games, they have 3 overs and 3 unders.
  • Bettings Trends:

  • The Grizzlies are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Kings are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Memphis has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Sacramento has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Grizzlies have been outscored by an average of 2.6 points in their last five games. For the season, Memphis has defeated opponents by an average of 1.3 points.
  • During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 105.0 points per game (9.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 113.6 points per game (1.9 below their season average).