Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Prediction

Daniel GimenezBasketball, NBA

The league’s top shooting defense will be a 1.5-point favorite on the road at Target Center, when the Portland Trail Blazers (10-4) clash with the Minnesota Timberwolves (6-9). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 223 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – North at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 16, 2018.

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds

The Timberwolves beat the New Orleans Pelicans in their last contest, 107-100, despite being 2-point underdogs. The Trail Blazers, on the other hand, were defeated by the Los Angeles Lakers, 126-117, and failed to cover as 2-point underdogs. The Minnesota game went 25.5 points under the projected point total of 232.5, while the Portland game went 20 points over the projected point total of 223.

Minnesota dominated every stat category in the contest. They had a free throw rate of 0.211 (below their season average of 0.224) and a turnover percentage of 13.0 (worse than their season average of 11.6). For those same stats, New Orleans was 0.117 and 15.0, respectively. Portland, meanwhile, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (22.9 vs. 23.4). Karl-Anthony Towns played well for Minnesota with 25 points and 16 rebounds. Meanwhile, Portland was led by Damian Lillard, who had 31 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds.

In their first matchup this season, Nurkic led the Trail Blazers to a 111-81 victory. He recorded a double-double with 19 points and 12 rebounds. The two teams combined to put up 192 points, which was well under the projected point total of 228, and Portland covered as a 6-point favorite. The Trail Blazers’ 40.5 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Timberwolves, who had a mark of 21.0.

Vegas has been spot on when setting the O/U total of Trail Blazers games, with an even split between overs and unders. Portland comes into the contest with records of 10-4 straight up (SU) and 10-4 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas is known to place the total high when the Timberwolves are involved, as nine of their 14 games have ended under the total. Moreover, Minnesota owns records of 6-9 SU and 7-8 ATS.

The Trail Blazers’ Jusuf Nurkic has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 15.8 points, 12.0 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Towns has averaged 24.0 points, 13.2 rebounds and 2.0 blocks during that same time frame for the Timberwolves.

Minnesota might have trouble finding the bottom of the net as they square off against one of the league’s best defenses. Portland ranks ninth in defensive efficiency, while the Timberwolves rank 19th in offensive efficiency. Moreover, the Trail Blazers, who rank fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (26.7 percent), will try to take advantage of the Timberwolves, who rank 30th in defensive rebounding percentage (69.9 percent).

Trail Blazers at Timberwolves Odds Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Trail Blazers, ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Trail Blazers average 32.1 three pointers per game, which ranks 14th in the league. The Timberwolves rank 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (33.5).
  • Portland averages 51.8 rebounds per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 27th in rebounds allowed per game (49.2).
  • The Trail Blazers rank 12th in second chance points per game (14.0) while the Timberwolves rank 29th in second chance points allowed per game (17.5).
  • Minnesota blocks 5.9 opponent shots per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Portland ranks 23rd in blocks allowed per game (6.1).
  • Portland ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while Minnesota ranks 15th (16.9).
  • The Timberwolves rank third in steals per game (9.5) while the Trail Blazers rank 27th (6.0).
  • The Timberwolves rank fifth in fast break points per game (17.1) while the Trail Blazers rank 19th (11.6).
  • Portland averages 45.4 points in the paint per game, which ranks 21st in the league. Minnesota ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (50.7).
  • Portland ranks sixth in assists allowed per game (22.3) while Minnesota ranks 26th (25.9).
  • Portland is 4-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Minnesota is 1-0.
  • In games where they score over 100 points, the Timberwolves are 6-6 and the Trail Blazers are 10-4.
  • Minnesota is 5-2 ATS at home, while Portland is 3-2 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 3 of the Trail Blazers’ 5 road games, while 4 of the Timberwolves’ 7 home games have gone over.
  • Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Portland and Minnesota have both had 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Timberwolves are 3-2.
  • The Trail Blazers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.6, up from 8.4 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 111.2 points per game (0.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.6 points per game (2.6 below their season average).