The league’s top scoring team will be 14-point favorites at home in Fiserv Forum, when the Milwaukee Bucks (13-4) go head-to-head with the Phoenix Suns (3-14). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 228.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday, November 23, 2018.
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Odds
In the Bucks’ last game, they had no trouble getting past the Portland Trail Blazers, 143-100, easily covering as 7.5-point favorites. The Suns, on the other hand, were topped by the Chicago Bulls, 124-116, and failed to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Milwaukee game finished 16 points over the projected point total of 227, while the Phoenix game went 22.5 points over the projected point total of 217.5.
Milwaukee played a nearly flawless game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 30.2 (above their season average of 23.6) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.597 (above their season average of 0.565). For those same stats, Portland had marks of 17.9 and 0.410, respectively. Phoenix, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (11.3 vs. 15.7). Giannis Antetokounmpo had a solid performance for Milwaukee, putting up 33 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists. Meanwhile, Phoenix was led by Deandre Ayton, who had 18 points, 12 rebounds and five assists.
The Bucks dominated this series last year, winning both games. In the last game, Milwaukee won 109-105. One of Milwaukee’s biggest advantages was getting to the charity stripe. They had 37 free throw attempts, while Phoenix had just 20. This is the first time these teams will meet this year.
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Suns games, with 9 unders compared to 8 overs. Phoenix comes into the contest with records of 3-14 straight up (SU) and 7-10 against the spread (ATS).
Games including the Bucks tend to go over the total (76.5 percent). Additionally, Milwaukee is 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS.
The Suns’ T.J. Warren has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 23 points,1.4 steals,1.2 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Eric Bledsoe has averaged 18 points,5.6 rebounds,5.2 assists,2.6 steals during that same time frame for the Bucks.
The high-octane offense of Milwaukee (first in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 114.1) will square off against the bottom-tier defense of Phoenix (30th in the league with a defensive efficiency of 111.7). The Bucks figure to have the edge on that end of the court. Additionally, put-back points could be tough to come by for the Suns. They rank 28th in the league in offensive rebounding percentage at 17.9 percent, while the Bucks are second-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 80.8 percent).
Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Bucks average 27.058823529411764 assists per game, which ranks 3 in the league. The Suns rank 23 in assists allowed per game (25.176470588235293).
- Milwaukee ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (40.4) while Phoenix ranks last (54.2).
- The Suns rank third in three pointers allowed per game (27.6) while the Bucks rank 27th (37.4).
- Milwaukee ranks fifth in blocks per game (6.2) while Phoenix ranks 27th (3.8).
- Milwaukee ranks 2 in second chance points allowed per game (10.647058823529411) while Phoenix ranks 22 (14.470588235294118).
- The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (9.4) while the Suns rank 28th (18.5).
- The Bucks rank 6 in steals allowed per game (7.0588235294117645) while the Suns rank 27 (9.941176470588236).
- Milwaukee ranks 9 in points off turnovers per game (18.41176470588235) while Phoenix ranks 28 in points off turnovers allowed per game (21.294117647058822).
- Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (51.8) while Phoenix ranks 28th (39.6).
- In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Milwaukee is 3-0 and Phoenix is 1-0.
- The Bucks are 13-4 when they score more than 100 points, while the Suns are 3-8.
- Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS at home, while Phoenix is 2-6 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 5 of the Suns’ 8 road games, while 8 of the Bucks’ 10 home games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Bucks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Milwaukee has 4 overs and 1 under, while Phoenix has 3 overs and 2 unders.
- During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 120.8 points per game (0.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.4 points per game (2.1 below their season average).
- The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.0, down from 10.5 for the season.
