It will be a clash between two exceptional defenses when the Denver Nuggets (18-9), 2-point underdogs, meet the Oklahoma City Thunder (17-9) at Pepsi Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 216.5 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET on Friday, December 14, 2018.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
The Nuggets defeated the Memphis Grizzlies in their last outing, 105-99, covering as 3.5-point favorites. The Thunder, meanwhile, were beat by the New Orleans Pelicans, 118-114, and failed to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. The Denver game finished 7 points over the projected point total of 197, while the Oklahoma City game went 2 points under the projected point total of 234.
Denver dominated every stat category in the game. They had a solid offensive rebounding percentage of 28.2 (above their season average of 27.2) and a turnover percentage of 13.0 (worse than their season average of 11.9). Memphis was 17.1 and 14.7, respectively, for those same stats. Oklahoma City, on the other hand, had an effective field goal percentage of 0.557 (above their season average of 0.507). Nikola Jokic played a key role for Denver with 27 points, 12 rebounds and six assists. Paul George, meanwhile played well for Oklahoma City, recording 25 points, 11 rebounds and five assists.
In their first matchup this season, Jamal Murray led the Nuggets to a 105-98 victory. He recorded 22 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists. Denver covered as a 6-point underdog and the two teams combined for 203 points, which was under the projected point total of 217. Denver’s 0.179 free throw rate was their biggest strength over Oklahoma City, who had a rate of 0.146.
Games featuring the Thunder have finished under the total 53.8 percent of the time. Oklahoma City holds records of 17-9 straight up (SU) and 15-11 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Nuggets’ 27 games, 16 have finished under the O/U total. Further, Denver owns records of 18-9 SU and 16-11 ATS.
Jokic has really been playing well as of late for Denver, averaging 18 points,9.8 assists,9.4 rebounds,1.4 steals over the last five games.
Denver might have a difficult time putting up points as they battle against one of the league’s best defenses. Oklahoma City currently ranks first in defensive efficiency while the Nuggets rank 11th in offensive efficiency. It will also be a tale of two tempos as the up-and-down Thunder rank fifth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Nuggets rank 24th.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank 3 in second chance points per game (15.592592592592593) while the Thunder rank 9 in second chance points allowed per game (12.23076923076923).
- Oklahoma City ranks first in points off turnovers per game (21.6) while Denver ranks 20th (16.2).
- The Nuggets rank third in assists per game (26.8) while the Thunder rank 19th (22.9).
- Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (52.7) while Oklahoma City ranks 17th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.5).
- Oklahoma City averages 31.807692307692307 three pointers per game, which ranks 13 in the NBA. Denver ranks 20 in three pointers allowed per game (32.44444444444444).
- The Thunder rank eighth in blocks allowed per game (4.7) while the Nuggets rank 25th (6.0).
- The Nuggets rank 1 in rebounds allowed per game (41.81481481481482) while the Thunder rank 12 (44.19230769230769).
- Denver ranks 15 in fast break points per game (12.62962962962963) while Oklahoma City ranks 19 in fast break points allowed per game (14.076923076923077).
- Denver ranks seventh in steals per game (8.6) while Oklahoma City ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.3).
- Denver is 10-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 5-0.
- The Thunder are 15-5 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 18-5.
- Oklahoma City is 7-6 ATS on the road, while Denver is 9-4 ATS at home.
- In 13 road games, the Thunder have 9 unders and 4 overs.
- The Nuggets have 7 unders and 6 overs in 13 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Oklahoma City and Denver have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Nuggets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Thunder are 2-3.
- The Nuggets\u2019 average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 6.3 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 114.4 points per game (2.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.0 points per game (2.8 above their season average).
