New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat ATS Prediction

Daniel GimenezBasketball, NBA

The New Orleans Pelicans (11-11) and the Miami Heat (7-13) face off at AmericanAirlines Arena. The Heat are 3-point underdogs and will try to put an end to a six-game home losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 229.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 30, 2018.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

The Pelicans will be looking for a similar outcome after easily covering the 5.5-point spread against the Washington Wizards in their last matchup, 125-104. The Heat, on the other hand, were defeated by the Atlanta Hawks, 115-113, and failed to cover as 8-point underdogs. The New Orleans game finished 12 points under the projected point total of 241, while the Miami game went 4.5 points over the projected point total of 223.5.

New Orleans played a nearly perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.232 (above their season average of 0.222) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 39.5 (above their season average of 26.7). Washington put up marks of 0.095 and 20.3, respectively, for those same stats. Miami, on the other hand, forced Atlanta into a turnover percentage of 20.3 (above their season average of 14.8). Miami was led by Josh Richardson, who recorded 22 points, eight rebounds and five steals. Anthony Davis, meanwhile had a good game for New Orleans, putting up 28 points and 15 rebounds.

The Pelicans dominated this series last year, winning both contests. In the most recent matchup, New Orleans won 124-123. One of New Orleans’ largest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 20-24 (83.3 percent), while the Heat were just 17-26 (65.4 percent). This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year.

Of the Pelicans’ 22 games, 13 have finished over the total. New Orleans comes into the contest with records of 11-11 straight up (SU) and 10-12 against the spread (ATS).

Much like New Orleans, Heat games also have a tendency to finish over the total (65.0 percent). Additionally, Miami is 7-13 SU and 8-12 ATS.

Julius Randle has been playing at a high level recently for New Orleans, averaging 20 points,10.8 rebounds,4.8 assists over the last five games.

The prolific offense of New Orleans (fifth in the league with an offensive efficiency of 110.8) will square off against the mid-tier defense of Miami (15th in the league with a defensive efficiency of 106.7). The Pelicans should have the advantage on that end of the court.

New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat Odds Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat average 33.4 three pointers per game, which ranks 10 in the league. The Pelicans rank 22 in three pointers allowed per game (33.04545454545455).
  • New Orleans ranks first in second chance points per game (17.7) while Miami ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (16.5).
  • The Heat average 6.5 blocks per game, which ranks second in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 17th in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
  • New Orleans ranks third in rebounds per game (48.6) while Miami ranks 18th in rebounds allowed per game (45.9).
  • Miami ranks 12 in fast break points allowed per game (13.05) while New Orleans ranks 25 (15.590909090909092).
  • The Pelicans rank fourth in assists per game (26.6) while the Heat rank 24th (22.0).
  • The Pelicans rank 13 in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.90909090909091) while the Heat rank 27 (19.4).
  • Miami ranks 18 in steals per game (7.35) while New Orleans ranks 24 in steals allowed per game (9.136363636363637).
  • New Orleans ranks first in points in the paint per game (58.3) while Miami ranks 18th (46.7).
  • Miami is 3-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while New Orleans is 2-0.
  • The Heat are 6-10 when they score over 100 points, while the Pelicans are 11-10.
  • New Orleans is 4-7 ATS on the road, while Miami is 3-8 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 7 of the Heat’s 11 home games, while 7 of the Pelicans’ 11 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, New Orleans and Miami are both 2-3 ATS.
  • The Pelicans have 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games, while the Heat have 3 unders and 2 overs
  • During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 115.0 points per game (3.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 117.4 points per game (0.4 above their season average).
  • The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.6, up from 1.9 for the season.