Washington Wizards at Miami Heat ATS Prediction 01/04/19

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The Washington Wizards (15-23) and the Miami Heat (18-18) go head-to-head at AmericanAirlines Arena. The Wizards are 7-point underdogs and can end a seven-game road losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 214.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 4, 2019.

Washington Wizards at Miami Heat ATS Odds

Both teams comfortably covered as favorites in their last matchup. The Heat (5.5-point favorites) defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 117-92, while the Wizards (6-point favorites) beat the Atlanta Hawks 114-98. The Miami game went 6 points over the projected point total of 203, while the Washington game finished 18 points under the projected point total of 230.

Washington dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.185 (matching their season average) and a turnover percentage of 8.9 (better than their season average of 12.2). Atlanta recorded marks of 0.084 and 12.2, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Miami played a perfect game. They had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 39.4 (above their season average of 26.4) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.605 (above their season average of 0.503). For those same stats, Cleveland was 5.6 and 0.540, respectively. Miami’s Josh Richardson led the way, contributing 24 points and five assists. Thomas Bryant, meanwhile played a pivotal role for Washington with 16 points and 15 rebounds.

The Wizards evened the season series at one with a 116-110 victory in their most recent contest. John Wall was the game’s top overall scorer with 28 points. Getting to the free throw line was one of Washington’s biggest advantages. They made 38 trips to the line, while Miami went 26 times. Washington covered as a 4-point underdog and the two teams combined to put up 226 points, which was just over the projected point total of 224.

Oddsmakers have a tendency to set the total low when the Wizards are involved, as 57.9 percent of their contests have gone over the total. Washington heads into the game with records of 15-23 straight up (SU) and 13-24-1 against the spread (ATS).

Heat games also tend to go over the O/U total (55.6 percent). Moreover, Miami owns records of 18-18 SU and 20-15-1 ATS.

Justise Winslow has been superb recently for Miami, averaging 17 points,6.4 rebounds,4.8 assists,2.6 steals over the last five games.

It might be an error-filled game for the Miami offense. Miami ranks 22nd in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.1 percent), while the gambling defense of Washington forces the fourth-most turnovers in the league (15.3 percent). This contest should be a battle of conflicting styles. The up-and-down Wizards rank fifth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Heat rank 21st.

Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat ATS Pick

Free Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Wizards rank 8 in steals per game (8.68421052631579) while the Heat rank 10 in steals allowed per game (7.472222222222222).
  • Miami ranks second in second chance points per game (15.5) while Washington ranks 27th in second chance points allowed per game (14.8).
  • The Wizards rank fifth in points off turnovers per game (19.0) while the Heat rank 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.8).
  • Miami averages 33.4 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Washington ranks 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (33.0).
  • Miami ranks 4 in blocks per game (6) while Washington ranks 16 (5.2105263157894735).
  • The Heat rank fourth in rebounds per game (47.6) while the Wizards rank 29th (40.4).
  • The Heat rank 3 in points allowed in the paint per game (42.166666666666664) while the Wizards rank 17 (49.31578947368421).
  • Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (21.8) while Washington ranks 25th (25.4).
  • Miami is 12-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Washington is 4-0.
  • The Heat are 16-13 when they score over 100 points, while the Wizards are 15-18.
  • Miami is 8-10-1 ATS at home, while Washington is 4-16 ATS on the road.
  • Of the Wizards’ 20 road games, they have 10 overs and 10 unders.
  • The Heat have 10 overs and 9 unders in 19 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Wizards are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 5 overs, while Washington has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (4.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 99.2 points per game (6.5 below their season average).
  • The Wizards’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 3.2, down from 4.3 for the season.