Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Portland Trail Blazers Free Prediction 01/04/19

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The Oklahoma City Thunder (24-13), 1-point favorites, will be at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter to square off against the Portland Trail Blazers (22-16) in a Northwest Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223.5 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, January 4, 2019.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Portland Trail Blazers ATS Odds

Both teams covered as favorites in their last matchup. The Trail Blazers (1-point favorites) defeated the Sacramento Kings 113-108, while the Thunder (5.5-point favorites) beat the Los Angeles Lakers 107-100. The Portland game finished 8.5 points under the projected point total of 229.5, while the Oklahoma City game finished 22.5 points under the projected point total of 229.5.

The Thunder held the Lakers to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.5 (below their season average of 21.8) and had a turnover percentage of 8.5 (better than their season average of 12.3). The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, made 26 of their 30 free throws (86.7 percent) and held the Kings to an effective field goal percentage of 0.430 (below their season average of 0.534). Jusuf Nurkic played a pivotal role for Portland with 24 points, 23 rebounds and seven assists. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, was lifted by Russell Westbrook, who recorded his 10th triple-double of the season. He had a solid game, collecting 14 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists.

The Trail Blazers dominated this series last year, securing victories in all four contests. In the last matchup, Portland won 108-105. Portland out-rebounded Oklahoma City. The Trail Blazers had more offensive rebounds (18 vs. 13), defensive rebounds (31 vs. 26) and total rebounds (49 vs. 39). This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year.

A little over half of the Thunder’s games have finished under the total. Oklahoma City holds records of 24-13 straight up (SU) and 21-16 against the spread (ATS).

Games featuring the Trail Blazers have typically finished under the total (55.3 percent). Further, Portland owns records of 22-16 SU and 19-19 ATS.

Nurkic and Al-Farouq Aminu have been playing well over the last five games for Portland. Nurkic has averaged 16 points,10.2 rebounds,4.4 assists, while Aminu has put up 10 points,8.6 rebounds,1.2 steals a game during that span.

This has potential to be an error-filled game for the offense of Portland. Portland ranks 21st in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.0 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Oklahoma City forces the most turnovers in the league (16.9 percent). Moreover, the Thunder, who rank 21st in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.187), will battle against the Trail Blazers, who rank fifth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.178).

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Thunder rank 23 in assists per game (22.37837837837838) while the Trail Blazers rank 27 (21.157894736842106).
  • Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (10.5) while Portland ranks 28th (6.6).
  • The Thunder average 15.1 second chance points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Trail Blazers rank 21st in second chance points allowed per game (14.1).
  • Oklahoma City ranks fifth in fast break points per game (17.5) while Portland ranks 22nd (10.8).
  • Portland ranks 3 in rebounds per game (48.473684210526315) while Oklahoma City ranks 18 in rebounds allowed per game (44.567567567567565).
  • The Thunder rank first in points off turnovers per game (21.2) while the Trail Blazers rank 27th (14.1).
  • The Thunder rank 8 in blocks per game (5.5675675675675675) while the Trail Blazers rank 24 in blocks allowed per game (5.684210526315789).
  • Oklahoma City ranks third in points in the paint per game (53.8) while Portland ranks 21st (46.3).
  • Portland is 7-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 6-0.
  • The Trail Blazers are 21-11 when they score over 100 points, while the Thunder are 22-8.
  • Oklahoma City is 11-9 ATS on the road, while Portland is 12-8 ATS at home.
  • In 20 road games, the Thunder have 14 unders and 6 overs.
  • Of the Trail Blazers’ 20 home games, they have 12 unders and 8 overs.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Oklahoma City and Portland are both 3-2 ATS.
  • The Thunder have 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push over their last five games, while the Trail Blazers have 5 unders
  • During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 111.8 points per game (0.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.4 points per game (1.0 below their season average).
  • The Trail Blazers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.8, up from 0.9 for the season.