Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction 02/08/19

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The league’s top shooting defense will be 7.5-point favorites on the road at American Airlines Center, when the Milwaukee Bucks (40-13) square off against the Dallas Mavericks (25-28). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223 points and it will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday, February 8, 2019.

Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds

Both teams covered as favorites in their last matchup. The Mavericks (5-point favorites) defeated the Charlotte Hornets 99-93, while the Bucks (12-point favorites) beat the Washington Wizards 148-129. The Dallas game went 23.5 points under the projected point total of 215.5, while the Milwaukee game finished 48.5 points over the projected point total of 228.5.

Milwaukee dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a turnover percentage of 11.8 (better than their season average of 12.0) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.704 (above their season average of 0.553). For those same stats, Washington was 18.6 and 0.614, respectively. Meanwhile, Dallas dominated nearly every facet of their game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 27.8 (above their season average of 23.8) and a turnover percentage of 11.4 (better than their season average of 13.1). Charlotte was 16.0 and 12.7, respectively, for those same stats. Luka Doncic played a huge role in the victory for Dallas with 19 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds to notch his second triple-double this season. Milwaukee, meanwhile, was lifted by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who had 43 points and six rebounds.

In their first matchup this season, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to a 116-106 win. He notched a double-double with 31 points and 15 rebounds. The two teams combined to score 222 points, which was just under the projected point total of 223.5, and Milwaukee was unable to cover as an 11-point favorite. Milwaukee did a great job of making free throws (20-22; 90.9 percent). Dallas, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (9.4 vs. 12.2).

Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Bucks games, with 28 unders compared to 25 overs. Milwaukee holds records of 40-13 straight up (SU) and 31-20-2 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Mavericks’ 53 games, 30 have finished under the O/U total. Additionally, Dallas is 25-28 SU and 34-19 ATS.

Dallas does a solid job at getting to the charity stripe. They rank fourth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.224), but Milwaukee is among the best in the league at keeping opponents off the line (ranking first by allowing a FTA rate of 0.170).

Bucks at Mavericks Betting Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Mavericks rank 12th in second chance points per game (13.6) while the Bucks rank 28th (11.4).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (9.5) while Dallas ranks 29th (16.9).
  • The Bucks rank second in blocks per game (5.9) while the Mavericks rank 23rd (4.5).
  • Milwaukee ranks fifth in assists per game (26.5) while Dallas ranks 25th (22.7).
  • Milwaukee ranks third in points in the paint per game (54.5) while Dallas ranks 20th (46.2).
  • The Mavericks rank fifth in three pointers attempted per game (34.8) while the Bucks rank last in three pointers allowed per game (35.6).
  • The Bucks rank eighth in points off turnovers per game (18.1) while the Mavericks rank 26th (14.8).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (48.7) while Dallas ranks 11th (46.2).
  • Milwaukee ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.9) while Dallas ranks 25th (8.5).
  • When allowing below 100 points, Milwaukee is 13-1 and Dallas is 10-3.
  • In games where they reach the century mark, the Mavericks are 24-22 and the Bucks are 40-10.
  • Milwaukee is 14-10-2 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 19-7 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 15 of the Bucks’ 26 road games, while 15 of the Mavericks’ 26 home games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Milwaukee and Dallas are both 5-0 ATS.
  • The Bucks have 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games, while the Mavericks have 4 unders and 1 over
  • During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 122.4 points per game (4.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.0 points per game (0.6 below their season average).
  • The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.2, up from 0.7 for the season.